No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Colton Cowser hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 37 ▶︎ watch; Tristan Peters hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 43 ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-05-17 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Oneil Cruz has struck out 72 times, projecting to 248. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.
The .400 chase: Otto Lopez went 2-for-4 last night and pushed his average up 3 points to .344. That is 183 at-bats over 47 team games — still short of the sample a .400 line is measured over, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 7 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.
Lines of the night: Edgar Quero hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 32 ▶︎ watch; Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 21 ▶︎ watch.
History movers: Jonathan Aranda — Franchise RBI: 34 now, pace 122.4, record 121 (Carlos Peña, 2007).
Sweep watch: the Phillies swept the Pirates (3 games) — their 2nd sweep in 20 days. 2 other clubs were swept the same night.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 20 home runs through 47 team games, a 69-homer pace — 5 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (25 of his eventual 73). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .344 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .424 clip the rest of the way (190-for-448). That is .001 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .421; an 0-for-4 raises it to .428.
Wild-card watch: the AL's last wild-card spot belongs to a losing record — the Rangers (22-24) hold it, with the Mariners (22-26) a game back.
On this date in 1998, David Wells of the Yankees threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).
30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 16 SB — 20 homers and 14 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 34/55.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 20 home runs through 47 team games, 5 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (25). Comparable chases finished with a median of 48 (95% CI 42-50); 32.1% reached 50 (17.9-50.7% at 95% confidence), from 28 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-3 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 69, it would rank No. 3 among all seasons since 1901 — only 2 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 131 RBI, set by Vladimir Guerrero in 1999. CJ Abrams projects to 131 and would tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.344AVG
18 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
LONG SHOT
Home Run Leader
20HR
69 projected HR · 5 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
63H
217 projected H · 13 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
20SB
68 projected SB · 18 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
152B
52 projected 2B · 4 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
43B
14 projected 3B · 6 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.301· 13 HR · 38 RBI
15 / 8 / 3 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
10/16HR/SB
34/55 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 9 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Braves
32W
110 projected wins · record 116
NEAR PACE
Run Differential Leader
Braves
+98
+338 projected run differential