87% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Kyle Schwarber leads the majors in home runs
Through 134 games he is first in home runs — the kind of line that decides awards.
This has been his headline for 23 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 40 No. 1 in home runs on MLB's own leaderboards — 40 home runs MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 380 career home runs, 20 from 400 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 601 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
10 more to reach 50 HR.
Every claim above, with its source (3)
- No. 1 in home runs on MLB's own leaderboards — 40 home runs MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- No. 1 in home runs on MLB's leaderboard MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 380 career home runs, 20 from 400 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Kyle Schwarber is 20 from 400 career home runs.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- Batter Strikeouts Iconic · NEGATIVE HISTORY only one tracked 198 record 223 — Mark Reynolds, 2009 231projected
- 67 Home Runs Significant · MILESTONE No. 1 of 3home runs chases 40 record 73 — Barry Bonds, 2001 47projected, against 50 · near pace
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
What changed last night
0-for-4
W 7-1 vs Arizona Diamondbacks · 2026-09-01
carries a .240 average into today
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 319 | .223 | 28 | 53 | .856 |
| vs LHP | 182 | .269 | 12 | 30 | .898 |
| Home | 243 | .255 | 24 | 48 | .966 |
| Away | 258 | .225 | 16 | 35 | .784 |
| Day | 158 | .228 | 14 | 30 | .888 |
| Night | 343 | .245 | 26 | 53 | .865 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
134G
501AB
120H
.240AVG
40HR
83RBI
3SB
172B
13B
.872OPS
Chasing .400
.240Current AVG
135Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
121-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.373Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (114-for-83)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .240 | .240 | 1.024 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .240 | .240 | 1.229 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .240 | .240 | 1.373 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .240 | .240 | 1.422 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .240 | .240 | 1.843 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 40 | 47 | 10 in 23 g · 1 per 8.3 AB | NEAR PACE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 40 | 47 | 20 in 23 g · 1 per 4.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 40 | 47 | 22 in 23 g · 1 per 3.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 40 | 47 | 30 in 23 g · 1 per 2.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 40 | 47 | 33 in 23 g · 1 per 2.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 120 | 140 | 80 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 120 | 140 | 105 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 120 | 140 | 130 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 120 | 140 | 142 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 3 | 3 | 47 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 3 | 3 | 77 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 3 | 3 | 97 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 3 | 3 | 127 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 17 | 20 | 33 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 17 | 20 | 43 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 17 | 20 | 50 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 83 | 97 | 42 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 83 | 97 | 67 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 83 | 97 | 92 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 83 | 97 | 108 in 23 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
100%finishes with 40+ home runs
1%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 66.560 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 59.720 after regressing toward the league's 30.360 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 44.9, against a straight team-game pace of 47. Exact beta-binomial over 99 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
90.7%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
2.5%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=162); median finish 44. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 7-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .240 |
| 2026-08-31 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 2-1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .241 |
| 2026-08-30 | Los Angeles Angels | W 5-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .244 |
| 2026-08-29 | Los Angeles Angels | W 4-2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .244 |
| 2026-08-28 | Los Angeles Angels | W 5-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .245 |
| 2026-08-26 | Seattle Mariners | W 6-0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .243 |
| 2026-08-25 | Seattle Mariners | L 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .241 |
| 2026-08-24 | Seattle Mariners | L 2-9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .243 |
| 2026-08-23 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 6-4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .245 |
| 2026-08-22 | St. Louis Cardinals | W 12-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .245 |
Recent highlights
▶︎
Kyle Schwarber's go-ahead double2026-08-29 · Kyle Schwarber's tiebreaking double in the 10th put the Phillies ahead for good in a 4-2 win over the Angels
▶︎
Kyle Schwarber's walk-off homer (39)2026-08-23 · Kyle Schwarber's walk-off home run in the 9th beat the Cardinals 6-4
▶︎
Kyle Schwarber's two-homer Field of Dreams game2026-08-13 · Kyle Schwarber hit 2 home runs
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 139 team games; 59 in 2001