Playoff hunt
A standings table says who is ahead. It does not say who is in trouble, who is making a run, or which lead has quietly stopped being safe. Every number here is measured against this site's own archive — 14 days back, night by night — so a four-game gap that was nine a fortnight ago reads as the story it is.
Tonight
Ranked by how much a reader should care, not by which check ran first: how tight the race is, how far the ground moved, and how little season is left.
The NL East is tightening. The Braves still lead, but the Phillies have cut the deficit from five and a half games to three games since August 18.
The Tigers have been better than 63-75 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 74-win club.
The Angels have been better than 53-86 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 62-win club.
The Reds have won more than their runs suggest — 66-73 against the 58 wins their scoring has earned.
The Rays have won more than their runs suggest — 83-55 against the 75 wins their scoring has earned.
The cut line
Every club measured against the last playoff place rather than the top of the table, because that is the position the race is actually for.
Measured at the last wild card place. The Guardians hold it by one and a half games.
| Club | W–L | To the cut | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYY Yankees | 79–60 | +8.5 | 0.0 |
| BOS Red Sox | 75–64 | +4.5 | -1.5 |
| CLE Guardians | 70–68 | — | +1.0 |
| BAL Orioles | 69–70 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| TEX Rangers | 69–70 | -1.5 | -1.5 |
| TOR Blue Jays | 68–71 | -2.5 | -2.0 |
| MIN Twins | 67–72 | -3.5 | -3.0 |
| SEA Mariners | 65–74 | -5.5 | -2.5 |
A plus sign is a club holding a place. Division leaders are not on this ladder — they are already in.
Measured at the last wild card place. The Padres hold it by half a game.
| Club | W–L | To the cut | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI Phillies | 79–60 | +6.0 | +5.0 |
| CHC Cubs | 78–61 | +5.0 | -1.0 |
| SD Padres | 73–66 | — | 0.0 |
| AZ D-backs | 73–67 | -0.5 | +1.5 |
| MIA Marlins | 70–69 | -3.0 | +1.0 |
| STL Cardinals | 69–70 | -4.0 | -1.0 |
| PIT Pirates | 68–71 | -5.0 | +1.5 |
A plus sign is a club holding a place. Division leaders are not on this ladder — they are already in.
Six races
Sorted by compression. A division nobody is within six games of scores near zero however many clubs it has.
The Astros lead by one game.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU Astros | 70–69 | — | 0.0 |
| TEX Rangers | 69–70 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| SEA Mariners | 65–74 | 5.0 | -1.0 |
| LAA Angels | 53–86 | 17.0 | — |
| ATH Athletics | 53–86 | 17.0 | — |
The White Sox lead by three games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| CWS White Sox | 73–65 | — | 0.0 |
| CLE Guardians | 70–68 | 3.0 | +1.5 |
| MIN Twins | 67–72 | 6.5 | — |
| DET Tigers | 63–75 | 10.0 | — |
| KC Royals | 62–77 | 11.5 | — |
The Braves lead by three games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL Braves | 82–57 | — | 0.0 |
| PHI Phillies | 79–60 | 3.0 | +2.5 |
| MIA Marlins | 70–69 | 12.0 | — |
| WSH Nationals | 67–74 | 16.0 | — |
| NYM Mets | 62–77 | 20.0 | — |
The Rays lead by four and a half games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB Rays | 83–55 | — | 0.0 |
| NYY Yankees | 79–60 | 4.5 | +0.5 |
| BOS Red Sox | 75–64 | 8.5 | — |
| BAL Orioles | 69–70 | 14.5 | — |
| TOR Blue Jays | 68–71 | 15.5 | — |
The Brewers lead by eight games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIL Brewers | 86–53 | — | 0.0 |
| CHC Cubs | 78–61 | 8.0 | — |
| STL Cardinals | 69–70 | 17.0 | — |
| PIT Pirates | 68–71 | 18.0 | — |
| CIN Reds | 66–73 | 20.0 | — |
The Dodgers lead by nine and a half games.
| Club | W–L | GB | 14d |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAD Dodgers | 82–56 | — | 0.0 |
| SD Padres | 73–66 | 9.5 | — |
| AZ D-backs | 73–67 | 10.0 | — |
| SF Giants | 57–82 | 25.5 | — |
| COL Rockies | 53–86 | 29.5 | — |
Leads under pressure
Measured from the position rather than the club, so it covers the last wild card place as well as a division lead — and only when the lead has come down to somewhere a chaser can reach.
The Braves' lead in the NL East is down to three games from five and a half games on August 18.
Making a move
| Club | Race | Gained | Then → now |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | NL Wild Card | +5.0 | one game clear → six games clear |
Ground gained on the position that decides the race, since August 18. A club out of reach of that position is not listed however much it has won.
Losing ground
| Club | Race | Lost | Then → now |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | AL Wild Card | -3.0 | half a game back → three and a half games back |
| SEA | AL Wild Card | -2.5 | three games back → five and a half games back |
A club that has lost ground is not the absence of one that has gained it, and a page showing only the risers reads as if nothing ever goes wrong.
Runs against wins
Expected wins from runs scored and allowed, at the exponent fitted on 3,217 team-seasons. This is a description of what has already happened and not a forecast: a club is not owed the wins it has not got.
| Club | Record | Runs say | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET Tigers | 63–75 | 74–64 | 10.6 the record understates them |
| LAA Angels | 53–86 | 62–78 | 8.5 the record understates them |
| CIN Reds | 66–73 | 58–81 | 7.7 the record flatters them |
| TB Rays | 83–55 | 75–63 | 8.0 the record flatters them |
Method
The standard formula, halves included: a club that has played fewer games can trail by half a game, and rounding that away reports a race as tied when it is not.
Wild card numbers are measured at the last playoff place, not the first. A league whose top wild card leads by five and whose third is level with four clubs is a tight race, and a number anchored at the front would call it comfortable.
0–100, from how close the nearest real challenger is, how many clubs are stacked behind them, and how little season is left. A gap of zero in April is a real race and not a decided one.
Ground gained on that position since the archive's night nearest 14 days ago. A window that predates the archive is left blank rather than shown as no movement.
remaining strength of schedule and remaining head-to-head games are the two inputs that would most improve every number above, and neither is derivable from what this site holds — there is no forward schedule here. A strength of schedule computed from games already played would be a different number wearing the right name, so it is absent and said to be absent rather than quietly implied.