No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Mitch Garver hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 21 ▶︎ watch; Jung Hoo Lee hit an INSIDE-THE-PARK home run — a half-dozen or so happen a season ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-05-14 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
James Wood has struck out 66 times, projecting to 243. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.
History movers: CJ Abrams — Franchise RBI: 36 now, pace 132.5, record 131 (Vladimir Guerrero, 1999) · Yordan Alvarez, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 14 now, pace 50.4, record 47 (Jeff Bagwell, 2000).
The .400 chase: Brandon Marsh went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 3 points to .340. That is 144 at-bats over 44 team games — still short of the sample a .400 line is measured over, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 9 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.
Sweep watch: the White Sox swept the Royals (3 games) — their 2nd sweep in 18 days. 1 other club was swept the same night.
The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 18 home runs through 44 team games, a 66-homer pace — 5 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (23 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
The .400 burndown: Brandon Marsh carries a .340 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .422 clip the rest of the way (163-for-386). That is .001 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .419; an 0-for-4 raises it to .427.
Wild-card watch: the AL's last wild-card spot belongs to a losing record — the Mariners and the Rangers are level on 22-23, with the Orioles (20-24) 1 1/2 games back.
On this date in 1996, Dwight Gooden of the Yankees threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).
30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 15 SB — 20 homers and 15 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 37/55.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 18 home runs through 44 team games, 5 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (23). Comparable chases finished with a median of 43 (95% CI 41-44); 18.9% reached 50 (12.3-28% at 95% confidence), from 95 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-3 season
If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 66, it would rank No. 3 among all seasons since 1901 — only 2 finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 131 RBI, set by Vladimir Guerrero in 1999. CJ Abrams projects to 133 and would clear it by 2.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.340AVG
15 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
LONG SHOT
Home Run Leader
18HR
66 projected HR · 5 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
58H
214 projected H · 13 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
18SB
66 projected SB · 17 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
152B
55 projected 2B · 3 behind Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
33B
11 projected 3B · 7 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.321· 14 HR · 30 RBI
9 / 5 / 8 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
10/15HR/SB
37/55 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 8 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Braves
30W
110 projected wins · record 116
NEAR PACE
Run Differential Leader
Braves
+91
+335 projected run differential