Historic Chases · 2026-07-16

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-16

Only one game on the schedule: New York Mets 4, Philadelphia Phillies 1. Francisco Alvarez homered twice.

Kyle Schwarber has struck out 145 times, projecting to 240. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (32) — one every 11.1 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL Central is a coin flip: Guardians (51-46) and Sox (50-45) are even in the standings — zero games back. The WSH single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 47 and projects to clear it by 1.

The so-what: through 98 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 12 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (44 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .334 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .498 clip the rest of the way (127-for-255). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .494; an 0-for-4 raises it to .506.

Tightest race: the AL Central — Guardians (51-46) and Sox (50-45) are even in the standings, zero games back.

Year-over-year: the Sox are 50-45 — 18 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (32-65).

On this date in 2021, Jake Cronenworth hit for the cycle.

From nowhere: Junior Caminero is now 5th in MLB in home runs — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

From nowhere: Nick Gonzales is now 5th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 24 SB — 9 homers short and 6 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/40.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs through 98 team games, 11 behind Mark McGwire's 1998 pace at the same checkpoint (43). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44; 22.1% reached 50 and 1.6% reached 60 (n=122).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-20 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 149, it would rank No. 20 among all seasons since 1901 — only 19 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The WSH single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 47 and projects to clear it by 1.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.37 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400