Historic Chases · 2026-07-12

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-12

Jake McCarthy hit a LEADOFF INSIDE-THE-PARK home run — years pass between one and the next.

Kyle Schwarber has struck out 144 times, projecting to 240. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (32) — one every 10.9 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.

The AL Central is a coin flip: Guardians (51-46) and Sox (50-45) are even in the standings — zero games back. The WSH single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 47 and projects to clear it by 1.

Lines of the night: Abimelec Ortiz made his MLB DEBUT and went 1-for-2.

The so-what: through 97 team games, Kyle Schwarber sits 12 HR behind Bonds' 73-homer pace (44 at this point). That's the number that decides whether this season becomes a chase or a footnote.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Otto Lopez carries a .334 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .498 clip the rest of the way (127-for-255). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .494; an 0-for-4 raises it to .506.

Tightest race: the AL Central — Guardians (51-46) and Sox (50-45) are even in the standings, zero games back.

Year-over-year: the Sox are 50-45 — 18 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (32-64).

On this date in 2019, 2 Angels pitchers combined for a no-hitter (one of 3 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 21 HR / 24 SB — 9 homers short and 6 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 35/40.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 32 home runs through 97 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (42). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 27.9% reached 50 and 3.5% reached 60 (n=86).

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-20 season

If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 149, it would rank No. 20 among all seasons since 1901 — only 19 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The WSH single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 47 and projects to clear it by 1.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

The environment matters

This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate

MLB teams are averaging 8.36 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2021

Closest to .400