Historic Chases · 2026-07-05

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-07-05

The so-what: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) is holding an AL Triple Crown — he leads the AL in average (.318), home runs (29) and RBI (67). Across both leagues he is 3rd in MLB in average and 2nd in MLB in home runs. No one has won a Triple Crown since Miguel Cabrera in 2012, and only 17 have ever been won. The chase is not one number now — it is three, every night, until October.

History movers: Yordan Alvarez — Franchise Home Runs: 29 now, pace 50.5, record 47 (Jeff Bagwell, 2000).

Found velocity: Erick Fedde's sinker averaged 95.7 mph — his hardest start of the season, 2.0 mph over his 15-start baseline.

What changed from last season: Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 18 in 87 this season; Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 10.9% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 41 in 377 this season); Junior Caminero (TB) — walk rate up from 6.4% to 12.8% (41 in 643 plate appearances in 2025, 49 in 383 this season). 3 of 331 rate comparisons across 64 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Milestones reached last night: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) reached 30 SB.

Sweep watch: the Marlins swept the Athletics (3 games) — their 3rd sweep in 27 days. 1 other club was swept the same night.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

On this date in 2000, Luis Gonzalez hit for the cycle.

30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) sits at 19 HR / 23 SB — 11 homers and 7 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 34/41.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 30 home runs through 91 team games, 10 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (40). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46 (95% CI 44-47); 25% reached 50 (17.7-34.1% at 95% confidence), from 104 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The Marlins' single-season record is 221 hits, set by Juan Pierre in 2004. Otto Lopez projects to 219 and would finish 2 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Historical season twin

Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?

The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Mark Trumbo's 2016 (76% similarity). The match is strongest in speed, average, runs; the largest difference is power. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400