Historic Chases · 2026-05-27 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-27

Dustin May carried a NO-HITTER into the 8th — broken up by a double ▶︎ watch.

Oneil Cruz has struck out 87 times, projecting to 252. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

Lines of the night: Trey Gibson earned his first career win ▶︎ watch; Kyle Hurt earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Blaze Alexander hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 47 ▶︎ watch.

What changed from last season: Rafael Devers — walk rate down from 15.6% to 5.7% (112 in 719 plate appearances in 2025, 13 in 228 this season); Jordan Walker — home-run rate up from 1.7% to 7.4% (6 in 363 at-bats in 2025, 15 in 203 this season). 2 of 161 rate comparisons across 27 men on this season's leaderboards, corrected for having looked that many times.

Sweep watch: the Brewers swept the Cardinals (3 games) — their 3rd sweep in 20 days. 6 other clubs were swept the same night.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 21 home runs through 56 team games, a 61-homer pace — 8 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (29 of his eventual 73). That gap is the whole story: it closes, or the chase does.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

Wild-card watch: the AL's last wild-card spot belongs to a losing record — the Blue Jays and the Twins are level on 27-29, with the Orioles (26-30) a game back.

On this date in 1975, Lou Brock hit for the cycle.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 11 HR / 17 SB — 19 homers and 13 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 32/49.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 21 home runs through 56 team games, 8 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (29). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 42-47); 22.9% reached 50 (15.6-32.3% at 95% confidence), from 96 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-8 season

If Corbin Carroll finishes at the current projection of 24, it would rank No. 8 among all seasons since 1901 — only 7 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 49 home runs, set by Harmon Killebrew in 1964. Byron Buxton projects to 49 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400