Historic Chases · 2026-05-25 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-25

HOU threw a NO-HITTER against the Rangers — two or three happen a season ▶︎ watch.

Oneil Cruz has struck out 84 times, projecting to 252. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

History movers: Kyle Schwarber, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 21 now, pace 63, record 58 (Ryan Howard, 2006); Home Runs: 21 now, pace 63, record 73 (Barry Bonds, 2001) · Cubs — Losing Streak: 9 now, modern record 23 (Philadelphia Phillies, 1961).

Lines of the night: Wilber Dotel earned his first career win ▶︎ watch.

The so-what: Kyle Schwarber has 21 home runs through 54 team games, a 63-homer pace — 8 behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (29 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

Wild-card watch: the AL's last wild-card spot belongs to a losing record — the Twins (26-28) hold it, with the Mariners (26-29) half a game back.

On this date in 2014, Josh Beckett of the Dodgers threw a no-hitter.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 11 HR / 16 SB — 19 homers and 14 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 33/48.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons

Kyle Schwarber has 21 home runs through 54 team games, 8 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (29). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 42-47); 22.9% reached 50 (15.6-32.3% at 95% confidence), from 96 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-6 season

If Kyle Schwarber finishes at the current projection of 63, it would rank No. 6 among all seasons since 1901 — only 5 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000. Yordan Alvarez projects to 47 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Kyle Schwarber is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Kyle Schwarber would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400