Historic Chases · 2026-05-10 RECONSTRUCTED

← 2026-05-09 All days 2026-05-11 →

Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-10

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Josh Ekness earned his first career save ▶︎ watch; Kendry Rojas earned his first career win ▶︎ watch.

Oneil Cruz has struck out 61 times, projecting to 241. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

Brandon Marsh sits at .353 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

The so-what: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 10 HR and 15 SB, projecting to 40/59. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Neither half carries it alone; the season has to finish on both.

History movers: Kyle Schwarber, after a two-homer night — Franchise Home Runs: 16 now, pace 63.2, record 58 (Ryan Howard, 2006); Home Runs: 16 now, pace 63, record 73 (Barry Bonds, 2001).

Also last night: Brandon Marsh — a bench bat with 37 games played — went a perfect 4-for-4 ▶︎ watch; Brayan Rocchio — a bench bat with 40 games played — went a perfect 4-for-4 ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Brandon Marsh went 4-for-4 last night and pushed his average up 20 points to .353. That is 133 at-bats over 41 team games — still short of the sample a .400 line is measured over, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 10 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.

Sweep watch: the Brewers swept the Yankees (3 games).

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

MUST TRACK: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 10 HR / 15 SB, projecting to 40/59. Every game matters from here.

The .400 burndown: Brandon Marsh carries a .353 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .417 clip the rest of the way (164-for-393). That is .005 easier than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .414; an 0-for-4 raises it to .422.

Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the Rangers (19-21), with the Tigers (19-22) half a game back.

On this date in 2022, Reid Detmers of the Angels threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 10 HR / 15 SB — 20 homers and 15 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 40/59.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Aaron Judge versus the great home-run seasons

Aaron Judge has 16 home runs through 41 team games, 1 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (17). Comparable chases finished with a median of 42 (95% CI 41-44); 17.2% reached 50 (11.4-25.1% at 95% confidence), from 116 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-6 season

If Aaron Judge finishes at the current projection of 63, it would rank No. 6 among all seasons since 1901 — only 5 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Peña in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 46 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Aaron Judge is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Aaron Judge would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400