Historic Chases · 2026-05-06 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-05-06

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Andy Pages hit 3 home runs ▶︎ watch; Drew Millas hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 25 ▶︎ watch.

James Wood has struck out 58 times, projecting to 254. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901.

Ildemaro Vargas sits at .364 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

History movers: Matt Olson — Franchise RBI: 33 now, pace 140.7, record 139 (Matt Olson, 2023); Franchise Home Runs: 13 now, pace 55.4, record 54 (Matt Olson, 2023) · Aaron Judge, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 15 now, pace 65.7, record 62 (Aaron Judge, 2022).

Lines of the night: Jake McCarthy hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 27 ▶︎ watch.

The .400 chase: Ildemaro Vargas went 0-for-3 last night and saw his average slip 10 points to .364. That is 110 at-bats over 35 team games — still short of the sample a .400 line is measured over, and small enough that one 0-for-4 would take 13 points off it. The gap to .400 goes up once the sample can carry it.

Sweep watch: the Rays swept the Blue Jays (3 games) — their 5th sweep in 27 days. Only 2.3% of team-seasons since 1897 have swept 5 clubs inside 30 days — 71 of 3043. 2 other clubs were swept the same night.

The so-what: Aaron Judge has 15 home runs through 37 team games, a 66-homer pace — 0 ahead of Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (15 of his eventual 73). That gap is the whole story: it closes, or the chase does.

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

The .400 burndown: Ildemaro Vargas carries a .364 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .411 clip the rest of the way (164-for-399). That is .004 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .408; an 0-for-4 raises it to .415.

Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the Mariners and the Rangers, level on 18-20, with the Orioles (17-20) half a game back.

On this date in 1953, Bobo Holloman of the Browns threw a no-hitter (one of 3 thrown on this date).

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 9 HR / 12 SB — 21 homers and 18 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 39/53.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Aaron Judge versus the great home-run seasons

Aaron Judge has 15 home runs through 37 team games, even with Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (15). Comparable chases finished with a median of 40 (95% CI 38-42); 15.5% reached 50 (9.6-24% at 95% confidence), from 97 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-2 season

If Matt Olson finishes at the current projection of 64, it would rank No. 2 among all seasons since 1901 — only 1 finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Troy Glaus in 2000. Mike Trout projects to 47 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Aaron Judge is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Aaron Judge would reach at least 60 HR, and 110 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400