No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Ryan Vilade hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 19 ▶︎ watch; Michael Conforto hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 18 ▶︎ watch.
Historic Chases · 2026-05-04 RECONSTRUCTED
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Matt Olson has 15 doubles — projecting to 68, +0 vs Earl Webb's 67 pace. That pace would be the most doubles in any season since 1901. Needs 35 more to reach 50.
Ildemaro Vargas sits at .382 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.
The so-what: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 9 HR and 11 SB, projecting to 42/51. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.
History movers: Liam Hicks — Franchise RBI: 29 now, pace 134.2, record 132 (Giancarlo Stanton, 2017) · Aaron Judge, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 14 now, pace 64.8, record 62 (Aaron Judge, 2022); Home Runs: 14 now, pace 65, record 73 (Barry Bonds, 2001).
Also last night: Jackson Chourio — a bench bat with 1 game played — went a perfect 4-for-4 ▶︎ watch.
Sweep watch: the Yankees swept the Orioles (4 games) — their 3rd sweep in 18 days.
That morning's stakes
What we were watching
MUST TRACK: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 9 HR / 11 SB, projecting to 42/51. Every game matters from here.
The .400 burndown: Ildemaro Vargas carries a .382 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .406 clip the rest of the way (162-for-399). A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .403; an 0-for-4 raises it to .410.
Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the Mariners and the Rangers, level on 17-19, with the Blue Jays (16-19) a game back.
On this date in 2018, 4 Dodgers pitchers combined for a no-hitter.
30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 9 HR / 11 SB — 21 homers and 19 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 42/51.
Historical intelligence
How the night stacked up
Aaron Judge versus the great home-run seasons
Aaron Judge has 14 home runs through 35 team games, 1 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (15). Comparable chases finished with a median of 39 (95% CI 38-41); 12.2% reached 50 (8.2-17.7% at 95% confidence), from 181 comparable seasons.
Retrosheet · verified play-by-playA projected top-1 season
If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 250, it would be the most batter strikeouts in any season since 1901 — no season on record has finished higher.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025A franchise record is under pressure
The single-season record is 54 home runs, set by Matt Olson in 2023. Matt Olson projects to 54 and would tie it.
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Aaron Judge is building a rare combination
At his current pace, Aaron Judge would reach at least 60 HR, and 125 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).
SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025Closest to .400
.382AVG
4 consecutive hits needed to reach .400
NEAR PACE
Home Run Leader
14HR
65 projected HR · 1 behind Bonds's 73 pace
Hits Leader
46H
213 projected H · 11 behind Suzuki's 262 pace
Stolen Base Leader
14SB
65 projected SB · 14 behind Henderson's 130 pace
Doubles Leader
152B
68 projected 2B · +0 vs Webb's 67 pace
Triples Leader
33B
15 projected 3B · 4 behind Wilson's 36 pace
Triple Crown Watch (MLB)
.343· 12 HR · 27 RBI
2 / 3 / 9 in AVG/HR/RBI league ranks — full board on the Watch page
30/30 Club Pace
9/11HR/SB
42/51 projected HR/SB · team-game pace · 6 others in the hunt
ON PACE
Wins Leader (Team)
Braves
25W
112 projected wins · record 116
NEAR PACE
Run Differential Leader
Braves
+80
+360 projected run differential