85% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Ben Rice is top-10 in the majors in home runs, RBI and total bases
He is 7th in home runs at 35, 10th in RBI at 87, 10th in total bases at 260 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
The story changed tonight — this page led with a different case yesterday.
The case in 30 seconds
- 35 7th in home runs at 35, 10th in RBI at 87, 10th in total bases at 260 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .253 .865 OPS, 35 home runs, 87 RBI and 3 stolen bases over 134 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 577 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 7th in home runs at 35, 10th in RBI at 87, 10th in total bases at 260 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .865 OPS, 35 home runs, 87 RBI and 3 stolen bases over 134 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
1 RBI
W 7-3 vs Los Angeles Angels · 2026-09-01
carries a .253 average into today
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 320 | .256 | 25 | 60 | .916 |
| vs LHP | 182 | .247 | 10 | 27 | .771 |
| Home | 225 | .244 | 18 | 40 | .886 |
| Away | 277 | .260 | 17 | 47 | .846 |
| Day | 173 | .237 | 15 | 37 | .894 |
| Night | 329 | .261 | 20 | 50 | .849 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
134G
502AB
127H
.253AVG
35HR
87RBI
3SB
222B
33B
.865OPS
Chasing .400
.253Current AVG
124Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
114-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.289Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (107-for-83)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .253 | .253 | .940 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .253 | .253 | 1.157 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .253 | .253 | 1.289 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .253 | .253 | 1.337 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .253 | .253 | 1.759 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 35 | 41 | 15 in 23 g · 1 per 5.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 35 | 41 | 25 in 23 g · 1 per 3.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 35 | 41 | 27 in 23 g · 1 per 3.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 35 | 41 | 35 in 23 g · 1 per 2.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 35 | 41 | 38 in 23 g · 1 per 2.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 127 | 148 | 73 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 127 | 148 | 98 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 127 | 148 | 123 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 127 | 148 | 135 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 3 | 3 | 47 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 3 | 3 | 77 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 3 | 3 | 97 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 3 | 3 | 127 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 22 | 26 | 28 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 22 | 26 | 38 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 22 | 26 | 45 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 3 | 3 | 17 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 3 | 3 | 22 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 3 | 3 | 33 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 87 | 101 | 38 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 87 | 101 | 63 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 87 | 101 | 88 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 87 | 101 | 104 in 23 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
28%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 60.660 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 54.740 after regressing toward the league's 30.360 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 39.3, against a straight team-game pace of 41. Exact beta-binomial over 95 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
34.4%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=349); median finish 38. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Los Angeles Angels | W 7-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .253 |
| 2026-08-31 | Los Angeles Angels | L 1-10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .252 |
| 2026-08-29 | Boston Red Sox | L 0-6 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .254 |
| 2026-08-28 | Boston Red Sox | W 1-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .255 |
| 2026-08-27 | Houston Astros | L 1-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .253 |
| 2026-08-26 | Houston Astros | W 9-3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .251 |
| 2026-08-25 | Houston Astros | L 7-9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .249 |
| 2026-08-23 | Toronto Blue Jays | W 8-3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .249 |
| 2026-08-22 | Toronto Blue Jays | L 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .248 |
| 2026-08-21 | Toronto Blue Jays | W 3-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .249 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 139 team games; 59 in 2001