Colson Montgomery headshot

Colson Montgomery

Chicago White Sox · SS · through 2026-09-02

Season in context

Why he matters right now

Colson Montgomery sits 42nd of 51 in OPS among qualified hitters on this site's tracked board

No MLB leaderboard lead, no live chase and no milestone in range — a .213 average; 29 home runs; 79 RBI; 1 stolen base. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.

Same case as last night, moved numbers: batting average went from .215 to .213 since September 1.

The case in 30 seconds

  • No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 42nd of 51 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
  • .213 .726 OPS, 29 home runs, 79 RBI and 1 stolen base over 132 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool

The honest caveat

No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.

What to watch next

Next up: vs Minnesota Twins.

Every claim above, with its source (2)
  1. No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 42nd of 51 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
  2. .726 OPS, 29 home runs, 79 RBI and 1 stolen base over 132 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool

The evidence

What changed last night

0-for-4 L 0-2 vs Houston Astros · 2026-09-02 carries a .213 average into today

What to watch next

vs Minnesota Twins Rate Field · 7:40 p.m. ET Facing Zebby Matthews

Colson Montgomery faces a right-hander in Zebby Matthews. He is hitting .191 with 19 home runs in 346 at-bats against right-handers this season.

Situational splits

SplitABAVGHRRBIOPS
vs RHP 346 .191 1949 .668
vs LHP 152 .263 1030 .857
Home 234 .201 1128 .652
Away 264 .223 1851 .791
Day 207 .203 1227 .727
Night 291 .220 1752 .724

2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.

132G
498AB
106H
.213AVG
29HR
79RBI
1SB
222B
03B
.726OPS

Chasing .400

.213Current AVG
156Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
134-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.537Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (126-for-82)

Status: IMPOSSIBLE

Milestone tracker

ChaseTargetCurrentPaceNeeded from hereStatus
.350 AVG .350 .213 .213 1.183 ROS IMPOSSIBLE
.380 AVG .380 .213 .213 1.402 ROS IMPOSSIBLE
.400 AVG .400 .213 .213 1.537 ROS IMPOSSIBLE
.406 AVG .406 .213 .213 1.585 ROS IMPOSSIBLE
.466 AVG .466 .213 .213 2.012 ROS IMPOSSIBLE
50 HR 50 29 34 21 in 23 g · 1 per 3.9 AB EXTREME
60 HR 60 29 34 31 in 23 g · 1 per 2.7 AB EXTREME
62 HR 62 29 34 33 in 23 g · 1 per 2.5 AB EXTREME
70 HR 70 29 34 41 in 23 g · 1 per 2.0 AB EXTREME
73 HR 73 29 34 44 in 23 g · 1 per 1.9 AB EXTREME
200 Hits 200 106 124 94 in 23 g EXTREME
225 Hits 225 106 124 119 in 23 g EXTREME
250 Hits 250 106 124 144 in 23 g EXTREME
262 Hits 262 106 124 156 in 23 g EXTREME
50 SB 50 1 1 49 in 23 g EXTREME
80 SB 80 1 1 79 in 23 g EXTREME
100 SB 100 1 1 99 in 23 g EXTREME
130 SB 130 1 1 129 in 23 g EXTREME
50 2B 50 22 26 28 in 23 g EXTREME
60 2B 60 22 26 38 in 23 g EXTREME
67 2B 67 22 26 45 in 23 g EXTREME
20 3B 20 0 0 20 in 23 g EXTREME
25 3B 25 0 0 25 in 23 g EXTREME
36 3B 36 0 0 36 in 23 g EXTREME
125 RBI 125 79 92 46 in 23 g EXTREME
150 RBI 150 79 92 71 in 23 g EXTREME
175 RBI 175 79 92 96 in 23 g EXTREME
191 RBI 191 79 92 112 in 23 g EXTREME

How likely is the finish?

0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs

His rate of 51.970 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 47.610 after regressing toward the league's 30.240 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 32.6, against a straight team-game pace of 34. Exact beta-binomial over 92 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.

Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons

36730162 gJudge 62Bonds 7329
Cumulative home runs by team game against straight 62 (Judge 2022) and 73 (Bonds 2001) paces. The homepage checkpoint card uses the exact game-by-game Retrosheet curves; these reference lines are straight-line paces.
0.8%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR

Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=751); median finish 32. Retrosheet.

Recent game log

Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.

DateOppResultABHHRRBIRSBBBKAVG
2026-09-02 Houston Astros L 0-2 40 0 01 00 1 .213
2026-09-01 Houston Astros W 5-1 30 0 00 00 1 .215
2026-08-31 Houston Astros L 3-6 74 1 33 03 3 .216
2026-08-30 Minnesota Twins L 1-5 40 0 00 00 1 .211
2026-08-29 Minnesota Twins W 3-2 30 0 00 01 1 .213
2026-08-28 Minnesota Twins W 7-4 42 1 31 00 2 .214
2026-08-25 Texas Rangers W 11-7 41 0 11 01 2 .211
2026-08-24 Texas Rangers L 2-11 40 0 00 00 3 .211
2026-08-23 New York Mets W 2-1 40 0 00 00 2 .213
2026-08-22 New York Mets L 5-10 50 0 00 00 4 .215

Recent highlights

▶︎
Colson Montgomery's walk-off single2026-04-29 ·

Lahman + Retrosheet context

How this season fits history

Historical twinDave Kingman · 1986

88% season-shape match

HR checkpoint-30 vs Barry Bonds

Through 139 team games; 59 in 2001

Chase history

.209.223.23805-1609-02
Batting average, day by day
33404705-1609-02
Projected HR, day by day