40 HR, 30 SB, and 100 RBI
Why he matters right now
Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the majors in runs and total bases
Through 140 games he is first in runs and total bases — the kind of line that decides awards.
Same case as last night, moved numbers: runs went from 100 to 102 since August 31.
The case in 30 seconds
- 102 No. 1 in runs and total bases on MLB's own leaderboards — 102 runs, 306 total bases MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- OPS .943 — 2nd of 50 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
- 38 38 home runs, past his previous best of 31 in 2025; 102 runs, past his previous best of 91 in 2025 year-by-year record, 2 prior seasons since 2024 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- From nowhere: Pete Crow-Armstrong is now 2nd of 10 on MLB's home-run board — he wasn't on it a month ago, when it ran 10 deep. nightly anomaly scan, player id matched
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 627 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Milwaukee Brewers. 18 more to reach 120 RUNS.
Every claim above, with its source (6)
- No. 1 in runs and total bases on MLB's own leaderboards — 102 runs, 306 total bases MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- No. 1 in runs on MLB's leaderboard MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- No. 1 in total bases on MLB's leaderboard MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- OPS .943 — 2nd of 50 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
- 38 home runs, past his previous best of 31 in 2025; 102 runs, past his previous best of 91 in 2025 year-by-year record, 2 prior seasons since 2024 (MLB Stats API, cached)
- From nowhere: Pete Crow-Armstrong is now 2nd of 10 on MLB's home-run board — he wasn't on it a month ago, when it ran 10 deep. nightly anomaly scan, player id matched
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits 2nd in OPS among 50 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board; Pete Crow-Armstrong has already passed his career best in home runs; Pete Crow-Armstrong is climbing fast.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- 78-1 30/30 Club Historic · NEAR HISTORIC only one tracked 38/32 record 54/59 — Shohei Ohtani, 2024 44/37projected, against 30/30 · achieved
- 68 Total Bases Significant · MILESTONE No. 1 of 3total bases chases 306 record 457 — Babe Ruth, 1921 357projected, against 350 · on pace
- 62-2 Home Runs Significant · MILESTONE No. 2 of 3home runs chases 38 record 73 — Barry Bonds, 2001 44projected, against 50 · extreme
- 61+1 Runs Significant · MILESTONE No. 1 of 3runs chases 102 record 177 — Babe Ruth, 1921 119projected, against 120 · near pace
- 55 Triple Crown (NL) Notable · WATCH only one tracked
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
What changed last night
1-for-3
L 4-9 vs Milwaukee Brewers · 2026-09-01
carries a .280 average into today
What to watch next
vs Milwaukee Brewers
Wrigley Field · 7:15 p.m. ET
Facing Logan Henderson
Pete Crow-Armstrong faces a right-hander in Logan Henderson. He is hitting .269 with 27 home runs in 364 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 364 | .269 | 27 | 57 | .934 |
| vs LHP | 175 | .303 | 11 | 34 | .962 |
| Home | 265 | .309 | 23 | 50 | 1.037 |
| Away | 274 | .252 | 15 | 41 | .852 |
| Day | 226 | .261 | 13 | 35 | .853 |
| Night | 313 | .294 | 25 | 56 | 1.007 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
140G
539AB
151H
.280AVG
38HR
91RBI
32SB
272B
73B
.943OPS
Chasing .400
.280Current AVG
108Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
105-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.135Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (101-for-89)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .280 | .280 | .775 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .280 | .280 | .989 ROS | EXTREME |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .280 | .280 | 1.135 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .280 | .280 | 1.169 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .280 | .280 | 1.596 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 38 | 44 | 12 in 23 g · 1 per 7.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 38 | 44 | 22 in 23 g · 1 per 4.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 38 | 44 | 24 in 23 g · 1 per 3.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 38 | 44 | 32 in 23 g · 1 per 2.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 38 | 44 | 35 in 23 g · 1 per 2.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 151 | 176 | 49 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 151 | 176 | 74 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 151 | 176 | 99 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 151 | 176 | 111 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 32 | 37 | 18 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 32 | 37 | 48 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 32 | 37 | 68 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 32 | 37 | 98 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 27 | 31 | 23 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 27 | 31 | 33 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 27 | 31 | 40 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 7 | 8 | 13 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 7 | 8 | 18 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 7 | 8 | 29 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 91 | 106 | 34 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 91 | 106 | 59 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 91 | 106 | 84 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 91 | 106 | 100 in 23 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
85%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 60.610 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 55.080 after regressing toward the league's 30.360 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 42.7, against a straight team-game pace of 44. Exact beta-binomial over 104 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
73.6%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.4%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=250); median finish 41. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Milwaukee Brewers | L 4-9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .280 |
| 2026-08-31 | Milwaukee Brewers | W 17-3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | .280 |
| 2026-08-30 | Cincinnati Reds | L 5-7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .283 |
| 2026-08-29 | Cincinnati Reds | W 17-5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .282 |
| 2026-08-28 | Cincinnati Reds | L 8-10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .277 |
| 2026-08-26 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 0-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .276 |
| 2026-08-25 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 4-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .276 |
| 2026-08-24 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 7-0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .278 |
| 2026-08-23 | Seattle Mariners | W 19-2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .281 |
| 2026-08-22 | Seattle Mariners | L 4-5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .279 |
Recent highlights
▶︎
Pete Crow-Armstrong's leadoff home run (37)2026-08-30 · Pete Crow-Armstrong hit 2 home runs
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Pete Crow-Armstrong's second home run of the night (38)2026-08-30 · Pete Crow-Armstrong led off the game with a home run
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Pete Crow-Armstrong's THIRD homer of the game! (36)2026-08-29 · Pete Crow-Armstrong hit 3 home runs — three-homer games happen roughly 15 times a season
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
84% season-shape match
Through 139 team games; 59 in 2001