88% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Junior Caminero is top-10 in the majors in home runs, total bases and RBI
He is 3rd in home runs at 37, 3rd in total bases at 282, 8th in RBI at 88 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
This has been his headline for 13 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 37 3rd in home runs at 37, 3rd in total bases at 282, 8th in RBI at 88 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .279 .891 OPS, 37 home runs, 88 RBI and 3 stolen bases over 140 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
Junior Caminero has 37 home runs and none in 13 games — the longest quiet stretch of his season. It does not undo the case above; it is the part of the record that argues the other way.
What to watch next
Next up: at Texas Rangers. 68 more to reach 350 TB.
Every claim above, with its source (3)
- 3rd in home runs at 37, 3rd in total bases at 282, 8th in RBI at 88 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- Junior Caminero has 37 home runs and none in 13 games — the longest quiet stretch of his season. nightly anomaly scan (drought detector), player id matched
- .891 OPS, 37 home runs, 88 RBI and 3 stolen bases over 140 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Junior Caminero has gone quiet.
The evidence
What changed last night
0-for-4
L 4-10 vs New York Mets · 2026-09-02
carries a .279 average into today
What to watch next
at Texas Rangers
Globe Life Field · 8:05 p.m. ET
Facing Trevor Williams
Junior Caminero faces a right-hander in Trevor Williams. He is hitting .272 with 29 home runs in 401 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 401 | .272 | 29 | 72 | .870 |
| vs LHP | 134 | .299 | 8 | 16 | .949 |
| Home | 264 | .288 | 20 | 50 | .949 |
| Away | 271 | .269 | 17 | 38 | .834 |
| Day | 214 | .276 | 16 | 34 | .892 |
| Night | 321 | .280 | 21 | 54 | .890 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
140G
535AB
149H
.279AVG
37HR
88RBI
3SB
202B
13B
.891OPS
Chasing .400
.279Current AVG
109Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
105-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.135Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (101-for-89)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .279 | .279 | .787 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .279 | .279 | 1.000 ROS | EXTREME |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .279 | .279 | 1.135 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .279 | .279 | 1.180 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .279 | .279 | 1.596 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 37 | 43 | 13 in 23 g · 1 per 6.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 37 | 43 | 23 in 23 g · 1 per 3.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 37 | 43 | 25 in 23 g · 1 per 3.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 37 | 43 | 33 in 23 g · 1 per 2.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 37 | 43 | 36 in 23 g · 1 per 2.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 149 | 174 | 51 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 149 | 174 | 76 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 149 | 174 | 101 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 149 | 174 | 113 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 3 | 3 | 47 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 3 | 3 | 77 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 3 | 3 | 97 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 3 | 3 | 127 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 20 | 23 | 30 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 20 | 23 | 40 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 20 | 23 | 47 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 88 | 103 | 37 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 88 | 103 | 62 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 88 | 103 | 87 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 88 | 103 | 103 in 23 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
67%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 60.660 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 54.980 after regressing toward the league's 30.240 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 41.6, against a straight team-game pace of 43. Exact beta-binomial over 101 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
61.4%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.4%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=264); median finish 40. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | New York Mets | L 4-10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .279 |
| 2026-09-01 | New York Mets | W 6-2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .281 |
| 2026-08-31 | New York Mets | L 2-3 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .283 |
| 2026-08-30 | San Diego Padres | W 5-4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .282 |
| 2026-08-29 | San Diego Padres | W 7-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .280 |
| 2026-08-28 | San Diego Padres | W 9-4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .280 |
| 2026-08-26 | Detroit Tigers | W 3-0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .280 |
| 2026-08-25 | Detroit Tigers | L 1-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .278 |
| 2026-08-24 | Detroit Tigers | W 4-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .277 |
| 2026-08-23 | Baltimore Orioles | W 3-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .276 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 139 team games; 59 in 2001