84% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
CJ Abrams is top-10 in the majors in RBI
He is 4th in RBI at 94 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
This has been his headline for 2 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 94 4th in RBI at 94 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 29 29 home runs, past his previous best of 20 in 2024; 94 RBI, past his previous best of 65 in 2024 year-by-year record, 4 prior seasons since 2022 (MLB Stats API, cached)
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 574 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: at Los Angeles Dodgers.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 4th in RBI at 94 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 29 home runs, past his previous best of 20 in 2024; 94 RBI, past his previous best of 65 in 2024 year-by-year record, 4 prior seasons since 2022 (MLB Stats API, cached)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: CJ Abrams has already passed his career best in home runs.
The evidence
What to watch next
at Los Angeles Dodgers
UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 10:10 p.m. ET
Facing Blake Snell
CJ Abrams faces a left-hander in Blake Snell. He is hitting .241 with 6 home runs in 162 at-bats against left-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 344 | .279 | 23 | 64 | .905 |
| vs LHP | 162 | .241 | 6 | 30 | .714 |
| Home | 271 | .247 | 12 | 44 | .746 |
| Away | 235 | .289 | 17 | 50 | .961 |
| Day | 213 | .249 | 12 | 38 | .778 |
| Night | 293 | .280 | 17 | 56 | .893 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
133G
506AB
135H
.267AVG
29HR
94RBI
27SB
262B
33B
.845OPS
Chasing .400
.267Current AVG
113Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
108-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.352Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (96-for-71)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .267 | .267 | .944 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .267 | .267 | 1.197 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .267 | .267 | 1.352 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .267 | .267 | 1.408 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .267 | .267 | 1.887 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 29 | 33 | 21 in 20 g · 1 per 3.4 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 29 | 33 | 31 in 20 g · 1 per 2.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 29 | 33 | 33 in 20 g · 1 per 2.2 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 29 | 33 | 41 in 20 g · 1 per 1.7 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 29 | 33 | 44 in 20 g · 1 per 1.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 135 | 154 | 65 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 135 | 154 | 90 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 135 | 154 | 115 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 135 | 154 | 127 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 27 | 31 | 23 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 27 | 31 | 53 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 27 | 31 | 73 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 27 | 31 | 103 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 26 | 30 | 24 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 26 | 30 | 34 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 26 | 30 | 41 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 3 | 3 | 17 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 3 | 3 | 22 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 3 | 3 | 33 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 94 | 107 | 31 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 94 | 107 | 56 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 94 | 107 | 81 in 20 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 94 | 107 | 97 in 20 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 50.520 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 46.550 after regressing toward the league's 30.240 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 32.1, against a straight team-game pace of 33. Exact beta-binomial over 81 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.8%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=751); median finish 32. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Atlanta Braves | W 9-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .267 |
| 2026-08-31 | Miami Marlins | W 6-3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .269 |
| 2026-08-30 | Miami Marlins | L 2-6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .267 |
| 2026-08-29 | Miami Marlins | W 5-4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .269 |
| 2026-08-28 | Miami Marlins | W 9-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .272 |
| 2026-08-27 | Colorado Rockies | W 7-1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .274 |
| 2026-08-26 | Colorado Rockies | L 1-13 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .274 |
| 2026-08-25 | Colorado Rockies | L 1-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .276 |
| 2026-08-24 | Colorado Rockies | W 13-3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .278 |
| 2026-08-19 | Texas Rangers | W 6-0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .279 |
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 142 team games; 60 in 2001