82% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Jarren Duran sits 49th of 50 in OPS among qualified hitters on this site's tracked board
No MLB leaderboard lead, no live chase and no milestone in range — a .206 average; 19 home runs; 68 RBI; 18 stolen bases. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
Same case as last night, moved numbers: batting average went from .207 to .206 since August 31.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 49th of 50 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .206 .627 OPS, 19 home runs, 68 RBI and 18 stolen bases over 131 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
What to watch next
Next up: at Baltimore Orioles.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 49th of 50 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .627 OPS, 19 home runs, 68 RBI and 18 stolen bases over 131 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
0-for-4
L 6-9 vs Seattle Mariners · 2026-09-01
carries a .206 average into today
What to watch next
at Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 7:15 p.m. ET
Facing Brandon Young
Jarren Duran faces a right-hander in Brandon Young. He is hitting .199 with 17 home runs in 382 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 382 | .199 | 17 | 54 | .630 |
| vs LHP | 114 | .228 | 2 | 14 | .615 |
| Home | 240 | .225 | 10 | 31 | .655 |
| Away | 256 | .188 | 9 | 37 | .599 |
| Day | 177 | .181 | 6 | 26 | .550 |
| Night | 319 | .219 | 13 | 42 | .668 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
131G
496AB
102H
.206AVG
19HR
68RBI
18SB
142B
43B
.627OPS
Chasing .400
.206Current AVG
161Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
137-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.585Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (130-for-82)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .206 | .206 | 1.232 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .206 | .206 | 1.439 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .206 | .206 | 1.585 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .206 | .206 | 1.622 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .206 | .206 | 2.049 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 19 | 22 | 31 in 23 g · 1 per 2.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 19 | 22 | 41 in 23 g · 1 per 2.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 19 | 22 | 43 in 23 g · 1 per 1.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 19 | 22 | 51 in 23 g · 1 per 1.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 19 | 22 | 54 in 23 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 102 | 119 | 98 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 102 | 119 | 123 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 102 | 119 | 148 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 102 | 119 | 160 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 18 | 21 | 32 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 18 | 21 | 62 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 18 | 21 | 82 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 18 | 21 | 112 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 14 | 16 | 36 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 14 | 16 | 46 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 14 | 16 | 53 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 4 | 5 | 16 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 4 | 5 | 21 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 4 | 5 | 32 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 68 | 79 | 57 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 68 | 79 | 82 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 68 | 79 | 107 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 68 | 79 | 123 in 23 g | EXTREME |
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=2120); median finish 21. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Seattle Mariners | L 6-9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .206 |
| 2026-08-31 | Seattle Mariners | W 9-8 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .207 |
| 2026-08-30 | New York Yankees | L 1-16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .207 |
| 2026-08-29 | New York Yankees | W 6-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .208 |
| 2026-08-28 | New York Yankees | L 0-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .209 |
| 2026-08-26 | Miami Marlins | L 0-4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .210 |
| 2026-08-25 | Miami Marlins | W 7-3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .209 |
| 2026-08-24 | Miami Marlins | W 4-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .209 |
| 2026-08-23 | San Francisco Giants | W 5-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .207 |
| 2026-08-22 | San Francisco Giants | W 3-2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .207 |
Recent highlights
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Field View: Jarren Duran's go-ahead grand slam2026-08-25 · Jarren Duran's tiebreaking home run in the 11th put the Red Sox ahead for good in a 7-3 win over the Marlins
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Jarren Duran's go-ahead grand slam (18)2026-08-25 · Jarren Duran drove in 4 runs
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Jarren Duran's walk-off single2026-06-28 ·
Lahman + Retrosheet context