83% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Julio Rodríguez sits 44th of 49 in OPS among qualified hitters on this site's tracked board
No MLB leaderboard lead, no live chase and no milestone in range — a .247 average; 22 home runs; 71 RBI; 22 stolen bases. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
This has been his headline for 51 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 44th of 49 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .247 .708 OPS, 22 home runs, 71 RBI and 22 stolen bases over 150 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 44th of 49 in the qualified population; checked 9 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- .708 OPS, 22 home runs, 71 RBI and 22 stolen bases over 150 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 410 | .259 | 14 | 51 | .723 |
| vs LHP | 186 | .220 | 8 | 20 | .676 |
| Home | 287 | .258 | 15 | 42 | .768 |
| Away | 309 | .236 | 7 | 29 | .653 |
| Day | 216 | .213 | 5 | 20 | .576 |
| Night | 380 | .266 | 17 | 51 | .783 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
150G
596AB
147H
.247AVG
22HR
71RBI
22SB
262B
03B
.708OPS
Chasing .400
.247Current AVG
153Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
132-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
—Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (92-for-0)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .247 | .247 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .247 | .247 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .247 | .247 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .247 | .247 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .247 | .247 | — | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 22 | 22 | 28 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 HR | 60 | 22 | 22 | 38 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 62 HR | 62 | 22 | 22 | 40 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 70 HR | 70 | 22 | 22 | 48 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 73 HR | 73 | 22 | 22 | 51 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 147 | 147 | 53 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 147 | 147 | 78 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 147 | 147 | 103 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 147 | 147 | 115 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 SB | 50 | 22 | 22 | 28 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 80 SB | 80 | 22 | 22 | 58 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 100 SB | 100 | 22 | 22 | 78 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 130 SB | 130 | 22 | 22 | 108 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 2B | 50 | 26 | 26 | 24 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 60 2B | 60 | 26 | 26 | 34 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 67 2B | 67 | 26 | 26 | 41 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 20 3B | 20 | 0 | 0 | 20 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 25 3B | 25 | 0 | 0 | 25 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 36 3B | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 71 | 71 | 54 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 71 | 71 | 79 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 71 | 71 | 104 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 71 | 71 | 120 in 0 g | IMPOSSIBLE |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 33.640 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 33.030 after regressing toward the league's 30.200 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 22.0, against a straight team-game pace of 22. Exact beta-binomial over 0 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1788); median finish 22. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 (6d) | — | — | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .247 |
| 2026-09-25 | Los Angeles Angels | L 5-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .249 |
| 2026-09-24 | Los Angeles Angels | L 4-6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .250 |
| 2026-09-23 | Houston Astros | W 6-5 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .249 |
| 2026-09-22 | Houston Astros | L 0-7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .245 |
| 2026-09-20 | Colorado Rockies | W 2-1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .243 |
| 2026-09-19 | Colorado Rockies | L 3-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .243 |
| 2026-09-18 | Colorado Rockies | W 5-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .241 |
| 2026-09-16 | Los Angeles Angels | W 7-2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .243 |
| 2026-09-15 | Los Angeles Angels | L 1-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .241 |
Recent highlights
▶︎
Julio Rodríguez's three-run home run (21)2026-09-10 · Julio Rodríguez's go-ahead home run in the 7th put the Mariners ahead for good in a 4-3 win over the Rangers
▶︎
Julio Rodríguez ties game with first homer of season2026-04-11 · Julio Rodríguez hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 15
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 162 team games; 73 in 2001