n=188 near this checkpoint
Why he matters right now
Cade Cavalli sits 14th of 21 in ERA among qualified pitchers on this site's tracked board
1 live chase on the board, but nothing that clears the bar for a headline — 177 strikeouts; 153 innings; 29 starts. The numbers below are the whole story, and a season that does not make a claim is a perfectly normal thing for a big-league season to be.
The story changed tonight — this page led with a different case yesterday.
The case in 30 seconds
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 14th of 21 in the qualified population; checked 5 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- 3.12 ERA over 153 innings, with 177 strikeouts, 29 starts and a 1.20 WHIP snapshot pitching board — the union of MLB's top-10 pitching boards, then MLB's 1.0 IP per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
No thesis is not the same as no value. This page reports what cleared its evidence bar; a season can matter to a team in ways a leaderboard does not record.
What to watch next
23 more to reach 200 SO.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- No thesis cleared its evidence threshold; 14th of 21 in the qualified population; checked 5 leaderboards, the chase board and both milestone watch lists player_story tier scan — deliberate no-story outcome
- ERA over 153 innings, with 177 strikeouts, 29 starts and a 1.20 WHIP snapshot pitching board — the union of MLB's top-10 pitching boards, then MLB's 1.0 IP per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
Situational splits
| Split | IP | ERA | SO | WHIP | AVG against |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 62.0 | — | 74 | 1.15 | .221 |
| vs LHP | 89.2 | — | 103 | 1.25 | .249 |
| Home | 85.1 | 3.27 | 99 | 1.21 | .241 |
| Away | 67.1 | 2.94 | 78 | 1.19 | .233 |
| Day | 82.2 | 3.16 | 89 | 1.19 | .244 |
| Night | 70.0 | 3.09 | 88 | 1.21 | .230 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
29G
29GS
152.2IP
12-5W-L
3.12ERA
1.20WHIP
177K
10.43K/9
0SV
Strikeout chase
| Chase | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 200 K | 177 | 203 | 23 K · 5.3 per outing over 4.3 left | ON PACE |
| 250 K | 177 | 203 | 73 K · 17.0 per outing over 4.3 left | EXTREME |
| 300 K | 177 | 203 | 123 K · 28.6 per outing over 4.3 left | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 350 K | 177 | 203 | 173 K · 40.2 per outing over 4.3 left | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 383 K | 177 | 203 | 206 K · 47.9 per outing over 4.3 left | IMPOSSIBLE |
ERA & WHIP finish lines
| Finish | Current | Required rest-of-season | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sub-2.00 ERA | 3.12 | -5.55 over about 23 innings | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.75 ERA | 3.12 | -7.48 over about 23 innings | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.50 ERA | 3.12 | -9.41 over about 23 innings | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-1.00 WHIP | 1.20 | -0.33 | IMPOSSIBLE |
| Sub-0.90 WHIP | 1.20 | -1.10 | IMPOSSIBLE |
Recent highlights
▶︎
Cade Cavalli strikes out eight vs. Marlins2026-08-29 · Cade Cavalli struck out 8 over 4.0 IP
▶︎
Cade Cavalli shines, fans 11 vs. Rangers2026-08-19 · Cade Cavalli went 6.0 scoreless with 11 strikeouts — a season high
▶︎
Cade Cavalli strikes out 10, flirts with no-hitter2026-08-13 · Cade Cavalli allowed one hit over 8.0 scoreless innings (10 K)
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Chase history
Stuff watch
Four-seamer velocity, start by start
Every start's average against his own trailing baseline of 96.8 ± 0.69 mph. Ringed dots sit more than one standard deviation under the baseline; last start 97.05 mph (2026-08-02).
- release drift · ST: 0.47 vs 0.0 ± 0.35 (z 1.35, 4 straight)