85% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Yordan Alvarez leads the majors in batting average
Through 138 games he is first in batting average — the kind of line that decides awards.
The story changed tonight — this page led with a different case yesterday.
The case in 30 seconds
- .317 No. 1 in batting average on MLB's own leaderboards, qualified pool — .317 batting average MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- 94.5 mph average exit velocity 94.5 mph over 395 batted-ball events — 3rd on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
- Average exit velocity94.5mph
- Hard-hit rate53.7%
- Barrel rate16.5%
- Max exit velocity118.5mph
This season only, 395 batted-ball events. Ranked 3rd on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters — that is a top-of-the-league board, not a league-wide ranking.
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 605 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Chicago White Sox. 51 more to reach 350 TB.
Every claim above, with its source (3)
- No. 1 in batting average on MLB's own leaderboards, qualified pool — .317 batting average MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- No. 1 in batting average on MLB's qualified leaderboard MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- average exit velocity 94.5 mph over 395 batted-ball events — 3rd on a 10-deep board of the season's hardest hitters Statcast 2026 hardest-hit leaderboard (single season, top 10 only — not a league-wide ranking)
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Yordan Alvarez is on the season's hardest-contact board.
The evidence
Tracked on Live Chases
- Triple Crown (AL) Iconic · HISTORIC only one tracked
- 66 Total Bases Significant · MILESTONE No. 2 of 3total bases chases 299 record 457 — Babe Ruth, 1921 348projected, against 350 · near pace
- 50 Batting Average Notable · WATCH No. 1 of 3batting average chases .317 record .406 — Ted Williams, 1941 .317projected, against .400 · extreme
The score is an editorial score, not a measurement on a common scale. The rank above is this player's position on his own category's board — the ordering the site stands behind. See all tracked chases →
What changed last night
2-for-4
L 1-5 vs Chicago White Sox · 2026-09-01
carries a .317 average into today
What to watch next
vs Chicago White Sox
Daikin Park · 2:10 p.m. ET
Facing Luis Castillo
Yordan Alvarez faces a right-hander in Luis Castillo. He is hitting .335 with 28 home runs in 355 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 355 | .335 | 28 | 70 | 1.111 |
| vs LHP | 140 | .271 | 9 | 24 | .840 |
| Home | 251 | .371 | 20 | 53 | 1.178 |
| Away | 244 | .262 | 17 | 41 | .893 |
| Day | 149 | .289 | 8 | 22 | .970 |
| Night | 346 | .329 | 29 | 72 | 1.066 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
138G
495AB
157H
.317AVG
37HR
94RBI
1SB
292B
13B
1.037OPS
Chasing .400
.317Current AVG
69Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
81-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
.902Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (74-for-82)
Status: EXTREME
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .317 | .317 | .549 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .317 | .317 | .768 ROS | EXTREME |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .317 | .317 | .902 ROS | EXTREME |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .317 | .317 | .951 ROS | EXTREME |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .317 | .317 | 1.366 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 37 | 43 | 13 in 23 g · 1 per 6.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 37 | 43 | 23 in 23 g · 1 per 3.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 37 | 43 | 25 in 23 g · 1 per 3.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 37 | 43 | 33 in 23 g · 1 per 2.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 37 | 43 | 36 in 23 g · 1 per 2.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 157 | 183 | 43 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 157 | 183 | 68 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 157 | 183 | 93 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 157 | 183 | 105 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 1 | 1 | 49 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 1 | 1 | 79 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 1 | 1 | 99 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 1 | 1 | 129 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 29 | 34 | 21 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 29 | 34 | 31 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 29 | 34 | 38 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 94 | 110 | 31 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 94 | 110 | 56 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 94 | 110 | 81 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 94 | 110 | 97 in 23 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
67%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 61.160 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 55.370 after regressing toward the league's 30.360 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 41.6, against a straight team-game pace of 43. Exact beta-binomial over 100 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
61.4%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.4%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=264); median finish 40. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Chicago White Sox | L 1-5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .317 |
| 2026-08-31 | Chicago White Sox | W 6-3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .316 |
| 2026-08-30 | New York Mets | W 6-3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .317 |
| 2026-08-29 | New York Mets | L 2-6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .320 |
| 2026-08-28 | New York Mets | W 3-1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .318 |
| 2026-08-27 | New York Yankees | W 5-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .319 |
| 2026-08-26 | New York Yankees | L 3-9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .322 |
| 2026-08-25 | New York Yankees | W 9-7 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .323 |
| 2026-08-23 | Athletics | L 6-7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | .320 |
| 2026-08-22 | Athletics | L 3-4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .319 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 139 team games; 59 in 2001