86% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Randy Arozarena is top-10 in the majors in runs
He is 7th in runs at 91 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
Same case as last night, moved numbers: his headline number went from 89 to 91 since September 1.
The case in 30 seconds
- 91 7th in runs at 91 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .273 .838 OPS, 22 home runs, 66 RBI and 21 stolen bases over 133 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
A top-ten finish is a position on a board, not a verdict on a player. The men just below him on it are not meaningfully worse, and one good week moves several places.
What to watch next
Next up: vs Athletics.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 7th in runs at 91 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .838 OPS, 22 home runs, 66 RBI and 21 stolen bases over 133 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
1-for-2
W 8-3 vs Boston Red Sox · 2026-09-02
carries a .273 average into today
What to watch next
vs Athletics
T-Mobile Park · 9:40 p.m. ET
Facing Jack Perkins
Randy Arozarena faces a right-hander in Jack Perkins. He is hitting .266 with 15 home runs in 357 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 357 | .266 | 15 | 53 | .820 |
| vs LHP | 135 | .289 | 7 | 13 | .868 |
| Home | 225 | .240 | 9 | 27 | .758 |
| Away | 267 | .300 | 13 | 39 | .897 |
| Day | 177 | .266 | 10 | 32 | .850 |
| Night | 315 | .276 | 12 | 34 | .824 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
133G
494AB
135H
.273AVG
22HR
66RBI
21SB
282B
13B
.838OPS
Chasing .400
.273Current AVG
105Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
103-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.205Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (94-for-78)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .273 | .273 | .846 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .273 | .273 | 1.064 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .273 | .273 | 1.205 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .273 | .273 | 1.256 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .273 | .273 | 1.692 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 22 | 25 | 28 in 22 g · 1 per 2.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 22 | 25 | 38 in 22 g · 1 per 2.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 22 | 25 | 40 in 22 g · 1 per 1.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 22 | 25 | 48 in 22 g · 1 per 1.6 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 22 | 25 | 51 in 22 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 135 | 156 | 65 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 135 | 156 | 90 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 135 | 156 | 115 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 135 | 156 | 127 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 21 | 24 | 29 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 21 | 24 | 59 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 21 | 24 | 79 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 21 | 24 | 109 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 28 | 32 | 22 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 28 | 32 | 32 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 28 | 32 | 39 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 66 | 76 | 59 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 66 | 76 | 84 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 66 | 76 | 109 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 66 | 76 | 125 in 22 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 38.260 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 36.690 after regressing toward the league's 30.240 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 24.7, against a straight team-game pace of 25. Exact beta-binomial over 90 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1637); median finish 24. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Boston Red Sox | W 8-3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .273 |
| 2026-09-01 | Boston Red Sox | W 9-6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .272 |
| 2026-08-31 | Boston Red Sox | L 8-9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .273 |
| 2026-08-30 | Toronto Blue Jays | L 0-7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .268 |
| 2026-08-29 | Toronto Blue Jays | L 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .271 |
| 2026-08-28 | Toronto Blue Jays | L 1-8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .273 |
| 2026-08-26 | Philadelphia Phillies | L 0-6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .272 |
| 2026-08-25 | Philadelphia Phillies | W 4-1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .272 |
| 2026-08-24 | Philadelphia Phillies | W 9-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | .274 |
| 2026-08-23 | Chicago Cubs | L 2-19 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .275 |
Recent highlights
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 140 team games; 59 in 2001