86% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Rafael Devers is top-10 in the majors in doubles, total bases and home runs
He is 5th in doubles at 32, 6th in total bases at 264, 8th in home runs at 32 — placements on MLB's own season boards, which rank every QUALIFIED hitter in the sport rather than the few dozen this site tracks. Qualified is MLB's own bar, and it is the reason a part-season player with a big number is not on these boards at all.
The story changed tonight — this page led with a different case yesterday.
The case in 30 seconds
- 32 5th in doubles at 32, 6th in total bases at 264, 8th in home runs at 32 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .253 .834 OPS, 32 home runs and 83 RBI over 141 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
It is still a partial season — 600 plate appearances so far. A rate moves fastest against the strongest arms a schedule has left, and the schedule ahead is not the schedule behind.
What to watch next
Next up: at Pittsburgh Pirates.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 5th in doubles at 32, 6th in total bases at 264, 8th in home runs at 32 on MLB's season leaderboards MLB season leaderboard (the league's own top-10 board of qualified players, not this site's roster)
- .834 OPS, 32 home runs and 83 RBI over 141 games snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The evidence
What changed last night
1 HR, 1 RBI
L 12-13 vs Pittsburgh Pirates · 2026-09-01
carries a .253 average into today
What to watch next
at Pittsburgh Pirates
PNC Park · 12:35 p.m. ET
Facing Lake Bachar
Rafael Devers faces a right-hander in Lake Bachar. He is hitting .296 with 27 home runs in 341 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 341 | .296 | 27 | 66 | .996 |
| vs LHP | 186 | .177 | 5 | 17 | .541 |
| Home | 257 | .257 | 17 | 55 | .843 |
| Away | 270 | .252 | 15 | 28 | .831 |
| Day | 201 | .249 | 11 | 33 | .828 |
| Night | 326 | .258 | 21 | 50 | .842 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
141G
529AB
134H
.253AVG
32HR
83RBI
0SB
322B
13B
.834OPS
Chasing .400
.253Current AVG
130Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
118-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.284Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (113-for-88)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .253 | .253 | .932 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .253 | .253 | 1.148 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .253 | .253 | 1.284 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .253 | .253 | 1.330 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .253 | .253 | 1.750 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 32 | 37 | 18 in 23 g · 1 per 4.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 32 | 37 | 28 in 23 g · 1 per 3.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 32 | 37 | 30 in 23 g · 1 per 2.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 32 | 37 | 38 in 23 g · 1 per 2.3 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 32 | 37 | 41 in 23 g · 1 per 2.1 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 134 | 156 | 66 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 134 | 156 | 91 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 134 | 156 | 116 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 134 | 156 | 128 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 0 | 0 | 50 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 0 | 0 | 80 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 0 | 0 | 100 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 0 | 0 | 130 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 32 | 37 | 18 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 32 | 37 | 28 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 32 | 37 | 35 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 1 | 1 | 19 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 1 | 1 | 24 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 1 | 1 | 35 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 83 | 97 | 42 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 83 | 97 | 67 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 83 | 97 | 92 in 23 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 83 | 97 | 108 in 23 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
3%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 53.330 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 48.990 after regressing toward the league's 30.360 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 36.0, against a straight team-game pace of 37. Exact beta-binomial over 99 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
6.8%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=512); median finish 35. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 12-13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | .253 |
| 2026-08-31 | Atlanta Braves | W 7-3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 2 | .252 |
| 2026-08-29 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 1-7 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .251 |
| 2026-08-28 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 6-10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .248 |
| 2026-08-27 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 6-1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .248 |
| 2026-08-26 | Cincinnati Reds | L 9-10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .246 |
| 2026-08-25 | Cincinnati Reds | W 3-1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .244 |
| 2026-08-24 | Cincinnati Reds | W 5-0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .243 |
| 2026-08-23 | Boston Red Sox | L 4-5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .241 |
| 2026-08-22 | Boston Red Sox | L 2-3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .243 |
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 139 team games; 59 in 2001