89% season-shape match
Why he matters right now
Willson Contreras is 2 from 200 career home runs
He sits at 198 — one of the counting milestones the sport stops for.
This has been his headline for 25 straight days.
The case in 30 seconds
- 198 career home runs, 2 from 200 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- OPS .900 — 5th of 51 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
The honest caveat
A milestone is arithmetic on a career, not a statement about this season. Reaching it depends on playing time between now and then, which nothing here predicts.
What to watch next
Next up: at Baltimore Orioles.
Every claim above, with its source (2)
- 198 career home runs, 2 from 200 career_watch ledger (live-verified before publication)
- OPS .900 — 5th of 51 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board snapshot batting board — the union of MLB's top-10 hitting boards, then MLB's 3.1 PA per team game rule applied; not the league's full qualified pool
Other cases this page considered and did not lead with: Willson Contreras sits 5th in OPS among 51 qualified hitters on this site's tracked board.
The evidence
What to watch next
at Baltimore Orioles
Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 7:05 p.m. ET
Facing Shane Baz
Willson Contreras faces a right-hander in Shane Baz. He is hitting .276 with 19 home runs in 323 at-bats against right-handers this season.
Situational splits
| Split | AB | AVG | HR | RBI | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP | 323 | .276 | 19 | 58 | .884 |
| vs LHP | 111 | .270 | 7 | 21 | .945 |
| Home | 214 | .318 | 14 | 37 | 1.003 |
| Away | 220 | .232 | 12 | 42 | .800 |
| Day | 160 | .269 | 9 | 29 | .855 |
| Night | 274 | .277 | 17 | 50 | .926 |
2026 season, MLB Stats API. A split with no plate appearances is omitted rather than shown as zeroes.
125G
434AB
119H
.274AVG
26HR
79RBI
3SB
212B
33B
.900OPS
Chasing .400
.274Current AVG
92Consecutive hits needed to reach .400
95-for-100Needed over next 100 AB
1.206Rest-of-season AVG to finish .400 (82-for-68)
Status: IMPOSSIBLE
Milestone tracker
| Chase | Target | Current | Pace | Needed from here | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .350 AVG | .350 | .274 | .274 | .838 ROS | EXTREME |
| .380 AVG | .380 | .274 | .274 | 1.059 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .400 AVG | .400 | .274 | .274 | 1.206 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .406 AVG | .406 | .274 | .274 | 1.250 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| .466 AVG | .466 | .274 | .274 | 1.691 ROS | IMPOSSIBLE |
| 50 HR | 50 | 26 | 30 | 24 in 22 g · 1 per 2.8 AB | EXTREME |
| 60 HR | 60 | 26 | 30 | 34 in 22 g · 1 per 2.0 AB | EXTREME |
| 62 HR | 62 | 26 | 30 | 36 in 22 g · 1 per 1.9 AB | EXTREME |
| 70 HR | 70 | 26 | 30 | 44 in 22 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 73 HR | 73 | 26 | 30 | 47 in 22 g · 1 per 1.5 AB | EXTREME |
| 200 Hits | 200 | 119 | 138 | 81 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 225 Hits | 225 | 119 | 138 | 106 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 250 Hits | 250 | 119 | 138 | 131 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 262 Hits | 262 | 119 | 138 | 143 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 50 SB | 50 | 3 | 3 | 47 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 80 SB | 80 | 3 | 3 | 77 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 100 SB | 100 | 3 | 3 | 97 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 130 SB | 130 | 3 | 3 | 127 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 50 2B | 50 | 21 | 24 | 29 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 60 2B | 60 | 21 | 24 | 39 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 67 2B | 67 | 21 | 24 | 46 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 20 3B | 20 | 3 | 3 | 17 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 25 3B | 25 | 3 | 3 | 22 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 36 3B | 36 | 3 | 3 | 33 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 125 RBI | 125 | 79 | 91 | 46 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 150 RBI | 150 | 79 | 91 | 71 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 175 RBI | 175 | 79 | 91 | 96 in 22 g | EXTREME |
| 191 RBI | 191 | 79 | 91 | 112 in 22 g | EXTREME |
How likely is the finish?
0%finishes with 40+ home runs
0%finishes with 50+ home runs
0%finishes with 60+ home runs
His rate of 50.290 home runs per 1,000 plate appearances is read as 46.020 after regressing toward the league's 30.240 — a leaderboard selects for players who have outperformed, so an unregressed rate projected forward overstates every one of them. That puts the expected finish at 29.1, against a straight team-game pace of 30. Exact beta-binomial over 81 remaining plate appearances, averaged across playing-time scenarios. Calibrated against Retrosheet finishes: within 7 points of observed frequency in every band, and within 2 in three of five. It is a model, not a measurement.
Home run pace vs the benchmark seasons
0.0%of comparable chases reached 40 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 50 HR
0.0%of comparable chases reached 60 HR
Empirical: seasons within ±2 HR of his total at the same team-game checkpoint (n=1063); median finish 29. Retrosheet.
Recent game log
Derived nightly from the snapshot ledger — each row is the difference between consecutive days; multi-day rows are labeled.
| Date | Opp | Result | AB | H | HR | RBI | R | SB | BB | K | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | San Francisco Giants | W 3-2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .285 |
| 2026-08-21 | San Francisco Giants | W 6-4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .285 |
| 2026-08-19 | Arizona Diamondbacks | L 6-7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .284 |
| 2026-08-18 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 9-4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .283 |
| 2026-08-17 | Arizona Diamondbacks | W 11-1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .281 |
| 2026-08-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates | W 4-0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .278 |
| 2026-08-14 | Pittsburgh Pirates | L 4-8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .281 |
| 2026-08-13 | Toronto Blue Jays | W 7-0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .280 |
| 2026-08-12 | Toronto Blue Jays | L 4-6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .280 |
| 2026-08-11 | Toronto Blue Jays | L 3-5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .280 |
Lahman + Retrosheet context
How this season fits history
Through 140 team games; 59 in 2001