Historic Chases · 2026-04-28 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-04-28

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Victor Scott II hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 28 ▶︎ watch; Hunter Barco took a PERFECT GAME into the 7th — broken up by a walk ▶︎ watch.

Taylor Ward has 13 doubles — projecting to 73, +1 vs Earl Webb's 67 pace. That pace would be the most doubles in any season since 1901. Needs 37 more to reach 50.

Yordan Alvarez sits at .355 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

The so-what: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 9 HR and 10 SB, projecting to 49/54. Only five players have ever done it: Canseco, Bonds, A-Rod, Soriano, and Ohtani. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.

History movers: Elly De La Cruz, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 10 now, pace 55.9, record 52 (George Foster, 1977).

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

MUST TRACK: Oneil Cruz is on a 40/40 pace — 9 HR / 10 SB, projecting to 49/54. Every game matters from here.

Wild-card watch: two of the AL's three wild-card spots belong to losing records — the last of them to the Mariners and the Orioles, level on 15-16, with the Rangers (14-16) half a game back.

On this date in 1999, Larry Walker hit 3 home runs in one game.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 9 HR / 10 SB — 21 homers and 20 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 49/54.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Aaron Judge versus the great home-run seasons

Aaron Judge has 12 home runs through 30 team games, 2 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (14). Comparable chases finished with a median of 37 (95% CI 35-39); 8.2% reached 50 (5.5-12% at 95% confidence), from 280 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-1 season

If Ernie Clement finishes at the current projection of 73, it would be the most doubles in any season since 1901 — no season on record has finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 47 home runs, set by Troy Glaus in 2000. Mike Trout projects to 47 and would tie it.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Aaron Judge is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Aaron Judge would reach at least 60 HR, and 100 RBI. Only 10 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Cal Raleigh (2025), Aaron Judge (2022), Barry Bonds (2001).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400