Historic Chases · 2026-04-13 RECONSTRUCTED

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Nightly briefing

Baseball last night

Games of 2026-04-13

No history was made last night, but the box scores still talked: Josh Naylor hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 16 ▶︎ watch; Nolan Arenado hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 15 ▶︎ watch.

Andy Pages is hitting OVER .400. Needs a .400 clip the rest of the way to finish at .400.

Andy Pages sits at .417 — the last .400 season was Ted Williams in 1941.

The so-what: Oneil Cruz is on a 50/50 pace — 5 HR and 7 SB, projecting to 51/71. Only Shohei Ohtani has ever done it, 54/59 in 2024. Neither half carries it alone; the season has to finish on both.

The .400 chase: Andy Pages went 1-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 12 points to .417. He is OVER .400.

Lines of the night: The Baltimore Orioles came back from 6 runs down to win 9-7, and the Arizona Diamondbacks blew a 6-run lead; José Caballero hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 15 ▶︎ watch; Trent Grisham hit his first home run of the season — in his game No. 16 ▶︎ watch.

History movers: Brandon Lowe, after homering — Franchise Home Runs: 6 now, pace 60.8, record 54 (Ralph Kiner, 1949) · Yordan Alvarez — Franchise RBI: 14 now, pace 133.4, record 136 (Lance Berkman, 2006).

Sweep watch: the Mariners swept the Astros (4 games).

That morning's stakes

What we were watching

MUST TRACK: Oneil Cruz is on a 50/50 pace — 5 HR / 7 SB, projecting to 51/71. Only one player has ever done it — Shohei Ohtani's 54/59 in 2024. Every game matters from here.

The .400 burndown: Andy Pages carries a .417 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .400 clip the rest of the way (219-for-548). That is .003 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .397; an 0-for-4 raises it to .403.

Wild-card watch: the AL's last wild-card spot belongs to a losing record — the Angels and the Mariners are level on 8-9, with the Royals (7-9) 1 1/2 games back.

On this date in 2009, Orlando Hudson hit for the cycle.

30/30 watch: Oneil Cruz sits at 5 HR / 7 SB — 25 homers and 23 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 51/71.

Historical intelligence

How the night stacked up

Pace through history

Jordan Walker versus the great home-run seasons

Jordan Walker has 8 home runs through 16 team games, even with Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (8). Comparable chases finished with a median of 32 (95% CI 30-34); 5.2% reached 50 (3.1-8.3% at 95% confidence), from 291 comparable seasons.

Retrosheet · verified play-by-play

If the pace holds

A projected top-1 season

If Jordan Walker finishes at the current projection of 81, it would be the most home runs in any season since 1901 — no season on record has finished higher.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Franchise pressure

A franchise record is under pressure

The single-season record is 221 hits, set by Juan Pierre in 2004. Xavier Edwards projects to 219 and would finish 2 short.

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Only X seasons ever

Jordan Walker is building a rare combination

At his current pace, Jordan Walker would reach at least 60 HR, and 150 RBI. Only 3 completed seasons in the configured historical cohort reached every mark. The recent company includes Sammy Sosa (2001), Sammy Sosa (1998), Babe Ruth (1927).

SABR Lahman Baseball Database · through 2025

Closest to .400