Ronald Acuña Jr. reached 200 career home runs. And it wasn't alone: a PITCHERS' DUEL in one game: Hayden Wesneski allowed one hit over 7.0 scoreless innings (5 K); Davis Martin went 5.2 scoreless — and Jake Meyers played his first game since August 8 — 25 days away ▶︎ watch.
Nightly briefing
Who is chasing baseball history right now — and whether the numbers say they can get there.
Baseball last night
Overnight: nothing — Kyle Schwarber (PHI) held flat, and flat bends the projection down. Schwarber has struck out 198 times, projecting to 229. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. League strikeout rates have roughly doubled since 1980, so the all-time list is not an even comparison. But he's doing damage too: he leads MLB in home runs (40) — one every 12.5 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
No club in baseball has been hotter: the Phillies have won 22 of their last 30, 3 clear of the next club among the 30 with 30 games played. They were 10 games under .500 on April 24 (8-18); they are 79-61 now. Collapse watch in the NL East: the Braves' lead over the Phillies was 7.5 games 18 days ago — it's 4.0 now. The Braves have gone 10-7 while the Phillies went 13-3.
The so-what: CJ Abrams (WSH) is on a 30/30 pace — 29 HR and 27 SB, projecting to 33/31. Power and speed usually live in different bodies, which is why fewer than fifty players have ever managed both in one season. Both numbers have to land — that is what makes the club so small.
Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) struck out five over four innings, allowing five earned. His four-seam averaged 100.9 mph, up 0.2 on the 100.6 he had averaged over his first 22 starts — the hardest four-seam among the 132 starters tracked this season. It is a board position and not a record: the rate carries about 0.87 of sampling error over 155 innings, and no partial-season history exists to say how often a rate this high in August survives to October. He has 227 strikeouts.
Seasons on a historic footing: Jacob Misiorowski, 13.18 strikeouts per nine innings, 5th among the 9,603 qualified seasons on file, behind four seasons, led by Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019; Dylan Cease (TOR), 12.72 strikeouts per nine innings, 6th.
For the second straight night: Thomas Saggese's tiebreaking single in the 10th put the Cardinals ahead for good in a 8-6 win over the Dodgers
History movers: Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — Triple Crown (AL).
Lines of the night: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) homered for the 39th time — one homer and eight steals from a 40/40 season; Brett Sullivan's walk-off single in the 11th beat the Orioles 6-5 ▶︎ watch; Spencer Torkelson's tiebreaking home run in the 12th put the Tigers ahead for good in a 11-6 win over the Twins ▶︎ watch; Andrew Painter allowed two hits over 7.0 scoreless innings (6 K) ▶︎ watch; Cam Schlittler (NYY) allowed two hits over 8.0 innings (9 K) ▶︎ watch.
What changed from last season: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — walk rate up from 4.7% to 11.9% (29 in 620 plate appearances in 2025, 73 in 616 this season); Jackson Merrill (SD) — stolen bases up from 1 in 115 games in 2025 to 24 in 137 this season; Nolan Arenado (AZ) — strikeout rate up from 12.2% to 22.8% (49 in 401 at-bats in 2025, 104 in 457 this season); Taylor Ward (SEA) — home-run rate down from 6.2% to 1.5% (36 in 579 at-bats in 2025, 7 in 481 this season). 4 of 820 rate comparisons across 158 qualified hitters and pitchers, corrected for having looked that many times.
Went deep more than once: Henry Bolte hit 2 home runs, driving in 4 — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch; Carter Jensen hit 2 home runs — his first career multi-homer game ▶︎ watch.
Also last night: Trevor Rogers struck out 11 over 6.2 IP ▶︎ watch; Dylan Cease went 6.0 scoreless ▶︎ watch; Aaron Ashby has not allowed a run in his last 15 innings.
The chases moved: Riley O'Brien recorded 1 save (35 for the season); Otto Lopez (MIA) had 1 hit (166 for the season) and hit 1 triple (8 for the season); Yandy Díaz (TB) had 1 hit (162 for the season); Bryan Reynolds (PIT) scored 2 runs (95 for the season) and hit 1 double (33 for the season); Alec Burleson (STL) drove in 1 run (101 for the season); Wilyer Abreu (BOS) hit 2 doubles (34 for the season); Nick Gonzales (PIT) had 1 hit — Batting Average, at .310; Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) stole 1 base (38 for the season); and 1 more.
Elsewhere on the card: ATL beat WSH 9-0 (Ronald Acuña Jr., 3 hits, 1 home run, 3 RBI); NYM beat TB 10-4 (Juan Soto, 2 hits, 1 home run); SF beat PIT 5-4 (Rafael Devers, 2 hits, 1 home run); CIN beat SD 7-3 (JJ Bleday, 3 hits, 1 home run, 2 RBI); MIL beat CHC 9-5 (Jackson Chourio, 4 hits, 1 home run); SEA beat BOS 8-3 (Roman Anthony, 3 hits, 1 home run).
13.18
strikeouts per nine
Jacob Misiorowski · MIL
227 K in 155 IP · 26 starts
The season's pitching story, still running: Jacob Misiorowski has struck out 13.18 per nine innings through 155 innings and 26 starts, the best rate among the 51 qualified starters on tonight's board. Four of the 7,102 full-schedule qualified starter seasons the AL and NL have played since 1920 have finished a full schedule above it: Gerrit Cole's 13.82 in 2019, Spencer Strider's 13.55 in 2023, Randy Johnson's 13.41 in 2001 and Pedro Martinez's 13.20 in 1999. Above them on a short schedule: Shane Bieber's 14.20, over the 77.1 innings of 2020 and Jacob deGrom's 13.76, over the 68.0 innings of 2020. Unchanged from a night ago.
- 14.20 Shane Bieber, 2020 (short schedule — 77.1 IP)
- 13.82 Gerrit Cole, 2019
- 13.76 Jacob deGrom, 2020 (short schedule — 68.0 IP)
- 13.55 Spencer Strider, 2023
- 13.41 Randy Johnson, 2001
- 13.20 Pedro Martinez, 1999
- 13.18 Jacob Misiorowski, this season so far
Sampling error on a rate over 155 innings is about 0.87.
Batter Strikeouts
NEGATIVE HISTORY
Kyle SchwarberPHI
Kyle Schwarber is on pace for 229 strikeouts
Mark Reynolds struck out 223 times in 2009, a mark that has survived the highest-strikeout era in history.
98History score
- Current
- 198
- Projected
- 229
- Record
- 223 Mark Reynolds, 2009
Fastest Pitch89
Jacob Misiorowski
Record 105.8 · Aroldis Chapman, 2010
Jacob Misiorowski's 105.5 mph 4-Seam Fastball on June 26 is the fastest pitch of 2026.
Triple Crown (AL)80
Yordan AlvarezHOU
▼ -15
Yordan Alvarez ranks 1/1/2 in the AL in AVG/HR/RBI.
Longest Ball79
Fernando Tatis Jr.
A 474-foot home run on July 21 — the longest ball of the season.
Team Wins78
BrewersMIL
101 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners▲ 1
13 wins from a 100-win season.
30/30 Club78
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
45/37 projectedRecord 54/59 · Shohei Ohtani, 2024
Already in.
Hardest-Hit Ball78
Oneil Cruz
Record 122.4 · Giancarlo Stanton, 2017
A 119.0 mph double on April 16 — Stanton's tracked record is 122.4.
League Strikeout Rate77
MLB (league-wide)MLB
Record 8.68 · 2021 season▼ -1
MLB hitters struck out more in 2021 than any season ever — 8.68 per team game. The league has been fighting its way back from the strikeout peak since.
Run Differential76
AthleticsATH
-224 projectedRecord -349 · Boston Red Sox, 1932▼ -2
Athletics are -194 in run differential and projecting to -224. The 1932 Red Sox bottomed out at -349.
The AL Central is tightening. The White Sox still lead, but the Guardians have cut the deficit from five and a half games to three games since August 19.
The Tigers have been better than 64-75 looks: their runs scored and allowed are those of a 75-win club.
Pace through history
A
Kyle Schwarber versus the great home-run seasons
Kyle Schwarber has 40 home runs through 140 team games, 19 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (59). Comparable chases finished with a median of 44 (95% CI 43-44); 2.5% reached 50 (1-6.2% at 95% confidence), from 162 comparable seasons.
Franchise pressure
A
A franchise record is under pressure
The Rays' single-season record is 198 hits, set by Aubrey Huff in 2003. Yandy Díaz projects to 189 and would finish 9 short.
The environment matters
A
This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.39 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2024. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
Historical season twin
A
Whose season does Kyle Schwarber resemble?
The completed season closest to Kyle Schwarber's projected shape is Anthony Santander's 2024 (87% similarity). The match is strongest in hit volume, speed, runs; the largest difference is run production. This is a comparison, not a forecast of how the season must finish.
Under the surface
Deep signals
ICE
Grant Taylor · 18.1 straight scoreless IP Hershiser's record is 59
drought groupThe power outage is plural: Bryan Reynolds (15 HR) hasn't homered in 31 games; Junior Caminero (37 HR) hasn't homered in 13 games. The longest quiet stretches of their seasons are costing them the pace.
pace surgeSurging: Fernando Tatis Jr. has pushed his home run pace from 16 to 22 in three weeks — 7 in 18 games where his own rate predicted 1.8. One of 73 pace comparisons run tonight.
Tonight's stakes
What to watch today
The hot hand: Tyler Soderstrom brings a 11-game hitting streak into tonight. Streaks get interesting at 20 and historic at 30.
Tightest race: the AL West — Astros (71-69) lead Rangers (69-71) by 2.
Year-over-year: the White Sox are 73-66 — 22 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (51-88).
Behind the plate: Derek Thomas leads the board at 97.3% on 149 calls; Alan Porter sits last (92.3%).
The stretch run — 142 team games down, the crowns are in play. AL RBI crown: Pete Alonso (BAL) 94, Yordan Alvarez 94 — pace says 107–108; Yordan Alvarez's pace takes the crown · NL ERA title: Jacob Misiorowski 1.97, Chris Sale (ATL) 2.06 — a coin flip to the wire · NL HR crown: Kyle Schwarber 40, Pete Crow-Armstrong 39 — pace says 46–45; a coin flip to the wire · AL Batting title: Yordan Alvarez .316, Chandler Simpson (TB) .309.
Rookie watch: Sal Stewart (CIN) has 105 RBI — the most in baseball (from a board of 53).
The Royals have lost 3 straight, and are 7-3 in their last 10.
The Athletics avoided a three-game sweep.
The Diamondbacks avoided a three-game sweep.
The D-backs moved into an NL wild-card spot, pushing the Padres out. The Yankees are 20 games over .500, a season best.
Brad Lord: lowering his ERA to 3.58 from 3.88.
Jacob Lopez: a 4th straight quality start and lowering his ERA to 4.71 from 4.98.
Call-ups: Elieser Hernández (Braves) and Riley Cornelio (Nationals) — the first of them to homer tonight would be the 277th player since 1916 to do it in his MLB debut.
The Rays activated Griffin Jax off the injured list.
The Royals activated Michael Massey off the injured list — he had not appeared since August 22.
The Rockies scored three in the 11th to take a game they had been losing.
Last night was the Brewers' 8th victory in 10 games.
On this date in 1990, Dave Stieb of the Blue Jays threw a no-hitter (one of 2 thrown on this date).
Career milestone watch: Dylan Cease sits at 75 career wins — 25 from 100; Freddie Freeman (LAD) sits at 383 career home runs — 17 from 400.
Multi-homer machine: Alex Bregman has 3 multi-HR games (tracked since July 13).
Clean gloves: the Royals have played 15 straight errorless games.
From nowhere: Pete Crow-Armstrong is now 2nd of 10 on MLB's home-run board — he wasn't on it a month ago, when it ran 10 deep.
Luck watch: J.T. Realmuto is hitting .222 while his batted-ball quality says .261. Statcast's verdict: the hits are coming.
Otto Lopez sits at 29 stolen bases — one from the 30 mark.
How to read the site
The chase, in plain English
No one is chasing .400 this season; the season log has the date it closed. Yordan Alvarez leads MLB at .316.
Every chase gets a 0–100 History Score against the record book, allowing home-run pace, streaks, Statcast extremes, and even negative history to share one radar.