The box scores did the talking last night: Junior Caminero (265) passed Toby Hall (251) on the Rays' all-time RBI list; Jonathan Aranda (222) passed Julio Lugo (212) on the Rays' all-time RBI list.
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 157 times, projecting to 233. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.7 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
The AL West is a coin flip: Rangers (55-53) lead Astros by 1. The WSH single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Alfonso Soriano in 2006. James Wood projects to 45 and projects to finish 1 short.
History movers: Bryan Baker — Saves: 29 now, pace 44, record 62 (Francisco Rodriguez).
Lines of the night: Shohei Ohtani (799) passed Jackie Robinson (734) on the Dodgers' all-time RBI list; Yordan Alvarez (653) passed Doug Rader (600) on the Astros' all-time RBI list; The San Francisco Giants hung 16 runs on the Milwaukee Brewers (16-3); Daniel Susac hit his FIRST career home run — and his second ▶︎ watch; One night, three Rays up the franchise RBI list: Junior Caminero (265) past Toby Hall; Jonathan Aranda (222) past Julio Lugo; Yandy Díaz (548) past Ben Zobrist.
Milestones reached last night: Dillon Dingler reached 100 hits; Jazz Chisholm Jr. reached 30 SB.
The .400 chase: Luis Arraez went 4-for-5 last night and pushed his average up 6 points to .331. .400 is effectively out of reach for Luis Arraez: he is hitting .331 and would need to bat .538 over his remaining ~204 at-bats. The best anyone has hit over a stretch that long is .481 (Rogers Hornsby, 1924).
The so-what: through 110 team games, Yordan Alvarez sits 11 HR behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (46 of his eventual 73). Keep watching that number — it separates a run at the record from a very good season.
Batter Strikeouts
NEGATIVE HISTORY
Kyle SchwarberPHI
Kyle Schwarber is on pace for 233 strikeouts
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 157 times, projecting to 233. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.7 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
Mark Reynolds struck out 223 times in 2009, a mark that has survived the highest-strikeout era in history.
98History score
- Current
- 157
- Projected
- 233
- Record
- 223 Mark Reynolds · 2009
Triple Crown (AL)95
Yordan AlvarezHOU
Yordan Alvarez ranks 1/1/1 in the AL in AVG/HR/RBI. He leads all three.
Fastest Pitch89
Misiorowski, Jacob
Record 105.8 · Aroldis Chapman
Misiorowski, Jacob's 105.5 mph 4-Seam Fastball on 2026-06-26 is the fastest pitch of 2026.
Runs79
James WoodWSH
146 projectedRecord 177 · Babe Ruth
Needs 22 more to reach 120.
Team Wins79
DodgersLAD
102 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners▲ 1
32 wins from a 100-win season.
Longest Ball79
Fernando Tatis Jr.
A 474-foot home run on 2026-07-21 — the longest ball of the season.
Hardest-Hit Ball78
Oneil Cruz
Record 122.4 · Giancarlo Stanton
A 119.0 mph double on 2026-04-16 — Stanton's tracked record is 122.4.
Team Wins77
BrewersMIL
100 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners▼ -1
33 wins from a 100-win season.
League Strikeout Rate77
MLB (league-wide)MLB
Record 8.68 · 2021 season
MLB hitters struck out more in 2021 than any season ever — 8.68 per team game. The league has been fighting its way back from the strikeout peak since.
Pace through history
A
Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons
Yordan Alvarez has 35 home runs through 110 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (46). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 20% reached 50 and 2.1% reached 60 (n=95).
If the pace holds
A
A projected top-23 season
If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 146, it would rank No. 23 among all seasons since 1901 — only 22 finished higher.
The environment matters
A
This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.39 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
Under the surface
Deep signals
Tonight's stakes
What to watch today
The .400 burndown: Luis Arraez carries a .331 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .539 clip the rest of the way (110-for-204). That is .007 easier than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .535; an 0-for-4 raises it to .550.
The hot hand: Nick Gonzales brings a 13-game hitting streak into tonight. Twenty is when a streak becomes a story; thirty is when it becomes history.
Tightest race: the AL West — Rangers (55-53) lead Astros (55-55) by 1.
Year-over-year: the Braves are 63-45 — 18 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (45-61).
Rookie watch: Kazuma Okamoto has 24 HR and 68 RBI in 106 games — the top rookie power line in baseball.
Franchise ladder watch: Yandy Díaz sits at 115 career home runs — 3 from B. J. Upton's 118 on the Rays' all-time list.
On this date in 1968, George Culver of the Reds threw a no-hitter.
Career milestone watch: Freddie Freeman sits at 382 career home runs — 18 from 400.
Career milestone watch: Willson Contreras sits at 194 career home runs — 6 from 200.
Clean gloves: the TEX have played 10 straight errorless games.
The power outage is plural: Jordan Walker (22 HR) hasn't homered in 15 games; Zach Neto (19 HR) hasn't homered in 14 games. The longest quiet stretches of their seasons are costing them the pace.
From nowhere: Nick Gonzales is now 4th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 24 HR / 26 SB — 6 homers short and 4 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 36/39.
How to read the site
The chase, in plain English
Luis Arraez leads MLB at .331, but .400 is still a mountain. He would need 48 straight hits to get there today, or roughly a .539 average the rest of the way (110-for-204) to finish at .400.
Every chase gets a 0–100 History Score against the record book, allowing home-run pace, streaks, Statcast extremes, and even negative history to share one radar.