Kody Clemens hit a WALK-OFF GRAND SLAM — walk-off grand slams happen about 5 times a season ▶︎ watch.
Nightly briefing
Baseball last night
Overnight: nothing — Schwarber held flat, and flat bends the projection down. Kyle Schwarber has struck out 157 times, projecting to 233. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.7 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
The AL West is a coin flip: Rangers (55-54) lead Astros by 0.5.
For the second straight night, jonathan Aranda (222) passed Julio Lugo (212) on the Rays' all-time RBI list
Lines of the night: Shohei Ohtani (799) passed Jackie Robinson (734) on the Dodgers' all-time RBI list; Yordan Alvarez (653) passed Doug Rader (600) on the Astros' all-time RBI list; One night, two Rays up the franchise RBI list: Jonathan Aranda (222) past Julio Lugo; Yandy Díaz (550) past Ben Zobrist; Noah Cameron carried a NO-HITTER into the 7th — broken up by a single ▶︎ watch; Victor Mederos earned his FIRST career win.
Milestones reached last night: Willson Contreras reached 100 hits; Luis García Jr. reached 100 hits; Luis García Jr. reached 75 RBI.
The .400 chase: Luis Arraez went 0-for-4 last night and saw his average slip 3 points to .328. .400 is effectively out of reach for Luis Arraez: he is hitting .328 and would need to bat .549 over his remaining ~200 at-bats. The best anyone has hit over a stretch that long is .481 (Rogers Hornsby, 1924).
The so-what: through 110 team games, Yordan Alvarez sits 11 HR behind Bonds's 2001 total at the same point (46 of his eventual 73). That gap is the whole story: it closes, or the chase does.
Batter Strikeouts
NEGATIVE HISTORY
Kyle SchwarberPHI
Kyle Schwarber is on pace for 233 strikeouts
Kyle Schwarber has struck out 157 times, projecting to 233. Mark Reynolds' record is 223. That pace would be the most strikeouts in any season since 1901. But he's doing damage too: he is 2nd in MLB in home runs (33) — one every 11.7 at-bats. The strikeouts are the price of the power.
Mark Reynolds struck out 223 times in 2009, a mark that has survived the highest-strikeout era in history.
98History score
- Current
- 157
- Projected
- 233
- Record
- 223 Mark Reynolds · 2009
Triple Crown (AL)95
Yordan AlvarezHOU
Yordan Alvarez ranks 1/1/1 in the AL in AVG/HR/RBI. He leads all three.
Fastest Pitch89
Misiorowski, Jacob
Record 105.8 · Aroldis Chapman
Misiorowski, Jacob's 105.5 mph 4-Seam Fastball on 2026-06-26 is the fastest pitch of 2026.
Team Wins80
DodgersLAD
103 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners▲ 1
31 wins from a 100-win season.
Runs79
James WoodWSH
146 projectedRecord 177 · Babe Ruth
Needs 21 more to reach 120.
Longest Ball79
Fernando Tatis Jr.
A 474-foot home run on 2026-07-21 — the longest ball of the season.
Hardest-Hit Ball78
Oneil Cruz
Record 122.4 · Giancarlo Stanton
A 119.0 mph double on 2026-04-16 — Stanton's tracked record is 122.4.
Team Wins77
BrewersMIL
100 projectedRecord 116 · 1906 Cubs / 2001 Mariners
33 wins from a 100-win season.
League Strikeout Rate77
MLB (league-wide)MLB
Record 8.68 · 2021 season
MLB hitters struck out more in 2021 than any season ever — 8.68 per team game. The league has been fighting its way back from the strikeout peak since.
Pace through history
A
Yordan Alvarez versus the great home-run seasons
Yordan Alvarez has 35 home runs through 110 team games, 11 behind Barry Bonds's 2001 pace at the same checkpoint (46). Comparable chases finished with a median of 46; 20% reached 50 and 2.1% reached 60 (n=95).
If the pace holds
A
A projected top-23 season
If James Wood finishes at the current projection of 146, it would rank No. 23 among all seasons since 1901 — only 22 finished higher.
Franchise pressure
A
A franchise record is under pressure
The TB single-season record is 46 home runs, set by Carlos Pena in 2007. Junior Caminero projects to 44 and would finish 2 short.
The environment matters
A
This is an unusual batter-strikeout climate
MLB teams are averaging 8.39 batter-strikeout events per team game. The last completed season at least this high was 2021. The stored historical peak is 8.81 in 2019.
Under the surface
Deep signals
drought group
The power outage is plural: Jordan Walker (22 HR) hasn't homered in 15 games; Zach Neto (19 HR) hasn't homered in 14 games. The longest quiet stretches of their seasons are costing them the pace.
riserFrom nowhere: Nick Gonzales is now 4th in MLB in batting average — he wasn't in the top 30 a month ago.
Tonight's stakes
What to watch today
The .400 burndown: Luis Arraez carries a .328 average into today; a .400 finish takes a .550 clip the rest of the way (110-for-200). That is .011 harder than yesterday. A 3-for-4 tonight lowers the requirement to .546; an 0-for-4 raises it to .561.
The hot hand: Nick Gonzales brings a 14-game hitting streak into tonight. Streaks get interesting at 20 and historic at 30.
Tightest race: the AL West — Rangers (55-54) lead Astros (55-55) by 0.5.
Year-over-year: the Braves are 64-45 — 19 wins ahead of where they stood on this date last season (45-62).
Rookie watch: Kazuma Okamoto has 24 HR and 68 RBI in 106 games — the top rookie power line in baseball.
Franchise ladder watch: Yandy Díaz sits at 115 career home runs — 3 from B. J. Upton's 118 on the Rays' all-time list.
On this date in 1973, Jim Bibby of the Rangers threw a no-hitter.
Career milestone watch: Freddie Freeman sits at 382 career home runs — 18 from 400.
Career milestone watch: Willson Contreras sits at 195 career home runs — 5 from 200.
Clean gloves: the TEX have played 10 straight errorless games.
30/30 watch: Pete Crow-Armstrong sits at 24 HR / 26 SB — 6 homers short and 4 steals short of a 30/30 season, projecting to 36/39.
How to read the site
The chase, in plain English
Luis Arraez leads MLB at .328, but .400 is still a mountain. He would need 50 straight hits to get there today, or roughly a .550 average the rest of the way (110-for-200) to finish at .400.
Every chase gets a 0–100 History Score against the record book, allowing home-run pace, streaks, Statcast extremes, and even negative history to share one radar.